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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks

Event:
(515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 13, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-105
Play:
4% – (515) Oklahoma City Thunder at (516) Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder Total Over 106.5 (-105)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4% Oklahoma City Team Total Over (9:30 ET): Last game, I focused on Dallas’ team total Under (110.5). That bet cashed, but the Mavs still won (105-101) and are now up 2-1 in this best of seven series. For Game 4, my initial thought was to back OKC, but after digging into the numbers a bit deeper, playing them Over their team total seems like the most prudent way to go. I don’t think the Thunder win Game 4 w/o going Over their team total. But by betting this way, we’re still covered in case the Mavs also show offensive improvement. I’m still not that big of a believer in Dallas at the defensive end, even though they just held OKC to 101 points last time out. 

I think there’s a case to be made that the Thunder have been the better team in this series. Despite being down 2-1, they’ve still outscored the Mavs over the course of the three games. They’ve also shot better in every game. Ironically, the Thunder shot better from the field in both losses than when they won Game 1. HC Mark Daigneault has suggested lineup changes could be forthcoming, specifically putting Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams on the floor together more as that did work well in the first two games and obviously gives the Thunder more size. 

Holmgren is just 3 for 13 from three-point range in this series and he’s not the only one on the team struggling from behind the arc. The Thunder have shot just 33.3% on 3PA the L2 games (20 of 60) and that simply must improve for them to come back in this series. Considering they shoot 38.8% for the season, I do in fact expect the three-point shooting to improve. This is also a team that averages 119.1 PPG for the season, so scoring 107 doesn’t seem like asking much (even though they failed to do so last game). We’re seeing less and less of Josh Giddey, which has been good for the Thunder offense. They cleared this number in each of the first two games. 4% Oklahoma City Team Total Over (Play to 108.5)

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