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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(961) Atlanta Braves at (962) New York Mets

Event:
(961) Atlanta Braves at (962) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 12, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-114
Play:
3% – (961) Atlanta Braves at (962) New York Mets Total Over 7.5 (-114) B Elder (RHP), L Severino (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% Over Braves/Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets were one out away from being no-hit yesterday as their lineup was dominated by Max Fried as well as a pair of Braves’ relievers. It was a JD Martinez HR that spoiled the no-no in the bottom of the ninth, but the Mets obviously still ended up losing 4-1. I’ve been a bit surprised at the lack of offense in this series (Atlanta won 4-2 on Friday) and from the Braves in general as of late (they are 15-1 to the Under since April 22nd!) But with four or more runs scored in four consecutive games, we’re starting to see life out of the visitors at the plate and my view is that it’s likely to continue on Sunday Night Baseball. 

Now, key to this Over play is that the Mets have to start showing some life at the plate as well. Almost getting no-hit is never a good thing, but there’s only one way to go after a showing like that and fortunately for the home team, they’re getting to face Bryce Elder this evening. Going back to 2023, Elder has been the clear weak link of the Braves’ rotation. Last time out (admittedly this was against the Dodges), he gave up seven runs in 3 ⅓ IP (including three homers). We likely only need half of that production from the Mets here tonight to cash this Over ticket. 

Elder’s first two starts weren’t nearly as bad as the last one, but he was fortunate to throw 6 ⅔ shutout innings vs. Miami (who stinks) as he also gave up eight hits. Bottom line is I project the Mets to at least double their run production from the first two games of the series tonight. Then we turn to the Braves’ lineup, who will face Luis Severino, who gave up four runs in five innings (at Tampa Bay) his last time out. That was Severino’s worst start of the season and particularly concerning was the six walks he issued. Walks have actually been an issue for both of tonight’s starters. Mets’ pitching has allowed 4+ runs in 6 of the last 8 games. I just think this is a great “buy low” spot as one (or both) of these lineups is due to “wake up” this evening. 3% Over Braves/Mets (Play to 8.0)

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