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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(200137) Luton Town at (200138) West Ham

(200137) Luton Town at (200138) West Ham
May 11, 2024 10AM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – (200137) Luton Town at (200138) West Ham REGULATION Total Over 3.25 (-110)

3% Over Luton Town/West Ham (10:00 AM ET): It’s all come down to the final two weeks for Luton Town as they seek to avoid relegation. The Hatters currently find themselves three points adrift of Nottingham Forest (who just beat already condemned Sheffield United last week). There’s a good chance all three newly promoted sides for 2023-24 get immediately sent back down the Championship (after all three newly promoted sides managed to stay up last season). But here, Luton Town probably couldn’t have asked for a more favorable fixture as they face out of form West Ham. 

The Hammers are “on the beach,” meaning no threat of relegation and no shot at European qualification. So they are simply playing out the string. Recent results have not been good as David Moyes’ side has not won since beating Wolves 2-1 back on April 6th. Since then, they’ve gone winless in six straight across all competitions, including the Europa League exit at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen. They’ve conceded at least two goals in each of the L4 Premier League matches including FIVE apiece in losses to Crystal Palace and Chelsea. 

With Luton Town having to “go for it” here, I expect goals to come in bunches. We are talking about two of the bottom three in the league in xGA (expected goals allowed) here. Luton is last in that category, even worse than Sheffield United, and last kept a clean sheet back on January 30th (a match against Brighton they won 4-0!) The good news (for the Hatters) is that they’ve scored in every Premier League match (except against Arsenal) since November 11th. This is West Ham’s home finale and I’d expect them to want to give the faithful an entertaining match. Certainly, both sides scoring at least two goals is a distinct possibility here and thus I’m on the Over. 3% Over Luton Town/West Ham (Play to 3.5)

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