3% NY Mets (7:45 ET): The Mets came in and took yesterday’s series opener 4-3 here in St. Louis. They are simply a better team right now compared to the Cardinals, who couldn’t even do anything against Sean Manaea. Now the Redbirds will face Jose Butto, who is LONG overdue for his first win of 2024 as he has a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in five starts. The Mets are actually 3-2 in those five starts with one of the losses coming last time out, 1-0 to the Cubs, a game where Butto allowed just four hits over six innings. Butto’s worst start of the young season did come against St. Louis (4 runs allowed in 5 ⅔ IP), but I think we’ll see much better from him this go around. 

In that prior start against St. Louis, Butto started opposite Miles Mikolas. The same is true again this evening. Shockingly, Mikolas outdueled Butto the first time, but let the record show he allowed more hits (7 vs. 4) in the same number of IP only to allow two fewer runs. Seems fluky to me. The key in that game was an early three-run HR that Butto allowed. He allowed TWO homers that day. In his other four starts, he hasn’t allowed any. Mikolas is coming off a quality start at Detroit, but threw a season-high 101 pitches. He also has a 5.68 ERA in 7 starts, five of which the Cardinals have lost. Over his L3 starts, Mikolas has allowed 5 home runs. 

And before losing yesterday, the Cards were swept (here at home) by the White Sox. It doesn’t get much lower than that. This is a team with a -33 run differential and going back to last season, it’s the first time in a long time we can say the Cardinals are an objectively subpar baseball team. The Mets, even after getting swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay, have a positive YTD run differential. They are the better team with the better starter (and better bullpen). Gotta back the road team at the plus price here. 3% NY Mets (Play to -110)