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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(505) Oklahoma City Thunder at (506) Dallas Mavericks

Event:
(505) Oklahoma City Thunder at (506) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 11, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – (505) Oklahoma City Thunder at (506) Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks Total Under 110.5 (-115)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Dallas Team Total Under (3:00 ET): Luka Doncic (knee, ankle) is listed as questionable for Game 3 Saturday, but the one thing I can say for certain is that the Mavs aren’t about to shoot as well as they did in their 119-110 victory in Game 2 when they were 18 of 37 (48.6%) from three. PJ Washington went a ridiculous 7 for 10 himself from beyond the arc and Doncic (who had NOT been shooting well in the playoffs) even made his first three 3PA. You also have to consider the fact that Oklahoma City had not allowed more than 95 points in any of its first five playoff games. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments defensively and hold Dallas Under its team total. 

Even after Game 2, OKC is still only allowing an average of 95.3 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Now those numbers will admittedly be difficult to maintain, however holding Dallas under 110 points here seems quite reasonable. Doncic, who had previously been struggling with his shot (including 1 of 8 from three in Game 1) had 29 points on 11 of 21 shooting last game. Clearly he’s not healthy and even assuming he plays, Doncic won’t be nearly as effective. He was just 5 for 35 from three the previous four games. 

Also keep in mind the Mavs are only averaging 107 PPG this postseason. They'd hit below 36% from three in all but one playoff game prior to Thursday, which was - easily - a postseason best. The only prior playoff game where they shot better than 36% from three (42.4% vs. LA in Game 2), they came back and shot a playoff-low 26.5% the next game. The name of the game is shooting regression for the Mavericks here. Worth noting the Under (for the game) is 11-1 this season when the Mavs are off a SU win as a dog. 3% Dallas Team Total Under (Play to 108.5)

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