3% Houston (7:05 ET).  Gave this out earlier on the Morning Wager. Upgrading to a client play as price is even nicer. The Astros are now 0-5 this season against the Yankees after getting their doors blown off last night, 10-3. But hear me out. Spencer Arrighetti starts tonight. While his overall numbers admittedly don’t look that great, Arrighetti is someone I cashed with last Thursday against the Guardians, which ended up being an easy 8-2 win. 

As I wrote in my analysis for that game, Arrighetti’s expected ERA is much lower than his actual ERA, plus he’s got a good FIP and now 21 strikeouts in 16 ⅓ IP. The strand rate of only 52.2% entering that start vs. the Guardians was completely unsustainable and will start to improve. This guy has been more unlucky than bad.

Just don't see the Astros getting swept again and speaking of unlucky, this team has a Pyth win difference of -3. For the Yankees, Rodon gave up three homers and seven runs in his last start. 3% Houston (Play to +125)