3% Philadelphia (6:40 ET): I get that the Phillies are at/near the peak of the market and won’t continue to win nearly 70% of their games the rest of the way. But they currently have the best record in all of baseball (25-11) and have won six straight overall, 10 in a row at home, not to mention 17 of 20 overall. Considering all that, and the fact that Blue Jays currently have the third worst run differential (-37) over in the American League, this price is way too cheap to pass up. Yes, the Phils played Monday while Toronto had off. But it’s not like Philly was pushed very hard yesterday (they won 6-1) and there’s just a big gap between these two ball clubs right now that this line simply is NOT accounting for. 

Toronto has won just 3 times in its last 12 games. Now you may think Jose Berrios gives them a shot at competing here. After all, Berrios has a 1.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across seven starts. But there are all sorts of signs of regression across his profile, namely a 4.93 xERA (expected ERA) as well as a .229 BABIP and completely unsustainable 96.6% strand rate. By the way, behind Berrios is a Blue Jays’ bullpen that was unable to hold a 6-1 advantage against Washington on Sunday. The Phillies are averaging 5.2 rpg at home this season and I see no reason why they shouldn’t be able to exceed that number here. 

After getting quality outings from the starting rotation each of the last three days, the Phillies send out Christopher Sanchez to the bump on Tuesday. Sanchez may have a much worse TSR (team start record) than Berrios, but he’s arguably pitched better and he has some signs of positive regression showing. The last two times Sanchez has started at home, he’s delivered a quality start. My opinion is the Phillies are better than the Blue Jays in virtually every facet and there’s no way they should be this short of a favorite at home. 3% Philadelphia (Play to -140)