Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 3.75 (-115)

3% Under Werder Bremer/RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Unbeaten in their last 10 matches, Leipzig are already assured of a place in next season’s Champions League, thanks to the Bundesliga gaining a 5th spot in Europe’s top competition via the Performance Spot. So not a ton to play for these last two weeks, but Marco Rose’s side certainly would like to take maximum points in the home finale on Saturday and keep the slight hope of finishing third in the league. Last week’s 1-1 draw at Hoffenheim really hurt those chances as Leipzig is now four points back of Stuttgart (who beat Bayern last weekend). 

As for Werder Bremen, incredibly they too have a shot at European Football next season as an eighth place finish is likely going to mean the Europa Conference League (presuming Leverkusen wins the Pokal). Right now, Bremen are just two points off eighth in the table and just three points back of seventh. Three consecutive matches w/o defeat, which include a 2-1 win over Stuttgart and 3-0 over Augsburg, have been huge though last week brought a 2-2 draw with Gladbach (after conceding a penalty in stoppage time). 

So goals have been aplenty in recent fixtures involving Werder Bremen. But I think this one goes a bit differently. Leipzig have conceded just one goal in their last six home matches and only 11 here all season (#2 behind Leverkusen). So I think there’s a good chance Bremen fails to score here. If so, we’re in great shape playing an Under on such a high total. For the season, Bremen is bottom five in the Bundesliga in xG (expected goals) while Leipzig is top three in xGA (expected goals allowed). What this hinges on is Bremen conceding two or fewer. Excluding the late penalty last week, they have done that in every match - save for the two against Leverkusen - going all the way back to OCTOBER! 3% Under Werder Bremen/RB Leipzig (Play to 3.5)