3% Denver 1H (7:00 ET): Please note that this is a first half bet. Infamously, the Nuggets were 0 for 5 ATS in the first halves of their first round series against the Lakers (not to mention just 1 for 5 ATS in first quarters!) Coming from behind to win four different times in one series sounds fun, but is hardly ideal. Therefore, I expect HC Michael Malone to put a real impetus on starting strong here in Game 1 against the Timberwolves. For the record, Denver has typically been an outstanding team in the first half this season. They had the second best 1Q net rating (+14.8) in the league and also outscore opponents by an average of 4.6 PPG in the 1H at home. 

Now Minnesota is a very worthy challenger to the reigning NBA Champs. With their size and depth, the T’wolves were a team constructed with Denver in mind. That’s not a surprise given their GM came over from the Nuggets’ organization. However, my one concern is whether or not this stage (second round) will be “too big.” This is the first time the franchise has been in the second round in 20 years! HC Chris Finch suffered an unfortunate injury on the bench in the close out game against Phoenix in Round 1 and had to undergo knee surgery. As of press time, it’s expected he’ll be on the bench Saturday, but not guaranteed. That’s a big deal. 

But at the end of the day, I see Game 1 as a situation where Denver will want to assert itself early. I don’t know how to explain the 1H struggles against the Lakers. Perhaps they simply didn’t respect that opponent, but the T’wolves should have their attention. Worth noting that while Minny did sweep Phoenix, they trailed at the half in two of the four games. Top two seeds playing with 2+ days rest in Game 1 of Round 2 are 56-36 ATS since ‘03. My view is that Denver is well aware that it would be MUCH tougher to come from behind against this opponent than it was against the Lakers. Look for those curious 1H woes from Round 1 to be a thing of the past. 3% Denver 1H (Play to -3)