4% Denver 1Q (10:00 ET): First off, please note that this is a first QUARTER bet. The Nuggets getting off to unusually slow starts this postseason has NOT been lost on HC Michael Malone."We have to do a better job, our starters in particular, have to do a better job of being ready to play and setting the tone early," Malone said after his team’s film session on Sunday. "What are we waiting for? I mean, now we're down 0-1, what are you waiting for?" For the record, a Denver team that owned the league’s second best 1Q net rating (+14.6) and outscores teams by an average of 4.5 PPG in the first half at home this season is now 2-4 SU/2-4 ATS in the 1Q & 1-5 SU/ATS in the 1H during the playoffs. 

Now I did cash my Nuggets 1H bet (-2) in Game 1. But Saturday ended up being a “reversal of fortune” for the NBA Champs, who trailed at half in EVERY game during Round 1 vs. the Lakers, yet still managed to close out the series in five games. But Game 1 vs. Minnesota saw the underdog T’wolves stage a second half turnaround, led by Anthony Edwards (43 points) and Naz Reid (14 pts in 4Q). It was the younger, less experienced team executing better down the stretch, which had to be a bit of a shock to most. 

Yes, I did go on Last Call Saturday (available on the WT YouTube page) and say “T’wolves in 6” (+500) was a good bet to make. But I would be shocked if they took the first two games in Denver. Don’t really want to lay the full game spread, however, so this team let’s focus on the first quarter (as opposed to the first half). I expect the Nuggets to receive Malone’s message “loud and clear” and come out ready to rock in Game 2. Another slow start and the “natives” (crowd) could very well start to get restless at Ball Arena. Improbably, the home team fell into an early 18-4 hole before storming back to take a 25-23 lead after the 1Q of G1. Don’t see that kind of start repeating itself and, again, I point towards Denver’s season-long trends, specifically the aforementioned 1Q net rating. Minnesota HC Chris Finch has called the Nuggets’ starting five “probably the most complete and complementary in the league.” I’m banking on the home team to come out hot. 4% Denver 1Q (Play to -2.5 or Play to -3 if Gobert is OUT)