3% Over Orioles/Reds (6:40 ET): Last night’s game was delayed by rain (for 2 hours and 41 minutes) but when that cleared it was Baltimore eventually emerging victorious, 3-0, behind 6 ⅓ scoreless innings from starter Cole Irvin (who has not allowed a run since April 15th!) In tonight’s rematch, I’m anticipating a lot more scoring, particularly from the Orioles’ side as they are facing a lefty (Andrew Abbott) and have crushed southpaws to the tune of a 138 wRC+ (2nd) and .277 batting average (4th). They are also 1st in HRs vs. lefties (18) and second in slugging (.484). For an offense that has already put up the most runs scored of any American League team, this should be a nice night at the plate.

It’s not like Abbott has been pitching all that well for the Reds either; twice in the last three starts he’s allowed two home runs and he was touched up for four runs total (in 5 ⅓) last time out at Texas. Going back to last season, even when he was having success, it was talked about how some of Abbott’s peripherals were simply unsustainable. He had a really high strand rate for most of 2023 and he’s a flyball pitcher, not good in the hitter friendly environment of Great American Ballpark against a good lineup. Unlike what we saw last night in Cincinnati, weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the hitters tonight. 

The one question I have for Baltimore is John Means starting. Means has been around for awhile, but he’s coming off a long rehab assignment that did not go well (8.68 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Norfolk) and tonight will be his first big league start since September. It figures not to be a long one either. I know the Reds have struggled at the plate lately, but it’s not Irvin they’re facing Saturday and the O’s bullpen is not in the best shape at the moment. Maybe the Reds can generate some runs via the stolen base? (De La Cruz was the only guy to get hits off Irvin last night). 3% Over Orioles/Reds (Play at 9.0 or lower)