Pavlos Laguretos
Event: (202401) VFB Stuttgart at (202402) FC Koln
Sport/League: GBL
Date/Time: September 30, 2023 9:30 AM EDT
Free German Bundesliga Pick Today: REGULATION VFB Stuttgart 0.0 (-125)
Koln vs Stuttgart
Bundesliga, Saturday, 9:30am ET
-THIS IS AN ACTUAL ALL-ACCESS CLIENT PLAY-
Koln are one of the teams that haven't won any of the 5 first matches of the season (D1 L4), scoring just 4 goals and conceding 9. They will now play host to one of the big surprises of the Bundesliga so far, Stuttgart, who are coming off another big win.
Stuttgart (W4 L1) have the 2nd best offense in the league with 17 goals, they have scored 3+ goals in 4 of 5 matches (and in the Cup match) and their offense is working miraculously. They went unbeaten against Koln last season with a 3-0 win at home and a goal-less draw in this venue. And now Stuttgart only grew stronger this season, while Koln are ever worse than last season.
Stuttgart have lost just 2 of L10 matches against Koln (W5 D3 L2) and they have lost just once as visitors to Koln since 2001 (W6 D6 L1). Koln are under a lot of pressure to get their first win but recent form and historical data tip the scales in favour of Stuttgart here. The play is STUTTGART PK (or Draw no Bet, it's the same bet) which is -125 Draftkings / -130 FanDuel, and there are more alternative ways to bet on this match explained below (Totals, Props, SGP).
Play: Stuttgart PK (Draw no Bet)
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, no play if odds lower than -135, reduce 2% if line is 0.25
TOTALS
Koln will need to go out and attack in search of goals and their first win, they will feel the pressure of performing in front of their home crowd, maybe an early goal will get them going. But they will open up at some point and Stuttgart are lethal on the counter attacks, but not so reliable at the defense. After all, Stuttgart can score 3 goals on their own to give us at least a half win.
-Over 2.75 Goals (-120 Draftkings)
-Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-115 DraftKings)
PROPS
Koln scored the first goal in their matches against Werder Bremen, Frankfurt and Wolfsburg but went on to lose two of them. Stuttgart scored first against Leipzig but went on to lose that one, and conceded first against Darmstadt but went on to win that one. If you want some high scoring props:
-Stuttgart to win from behind (+750 Draftkings)
-Koln to win from behind (+850 Draftkings)
-Any Team To Come From Behind And Win - Yes (+500 MGM)
SAME GAME PARLAY
We can create a Same Game Parlay that also gets us paid in the event of a Draw. Take Stuttgart or Tie & Over 1.5 Goals (-119 FanDuel / -130 Draftkings) but keep in mind that Draftkings are doing something weird with Same Game Parlays. They have ready made SGPs and this particular one is at -190, but if you go and create your own SGP by picking the exact same events (Stuttgart or Tie) & (Over 1.5 Goals) the price is -130 (but we need at least a couple of goals).
-SAME GAME PARLAY (SGP): Stuttgart or Tie & Over 1.5 Goals (-119 FanDuel / -130 Draftkings)
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