3% Freiburg +0.25 (12:30 ET): I’ll lay the bit of juice to get the quarter goal head start (meaning a draw would win you half your stakes). If that’s not an option for you, just play Freiburg “draw no bet” (for a smaller amount) as I think they’ll end up taking maximum points from this fixture anyway. We’ve officially reach the point of the European football season where there’s a “must-win” tax being placed on certain sides, whether the “must win” relates to a league title race, finishing in the European places or avoiding relegation. We have that here with Koln, who desperately needs a win here to avoid finishing bottom two in the Bundesliga (automatic relegation places).

But Koln just blew a golden opportunity last week by drawing with Mainz 1-1. This leaves them seven points adrift of complete safety (15th place) and still five points back of the relegation playoff spot (currently held by Mainz). So bottom line: Koln’s chances of survival are NOT looking good at the moment. It really can’t be argued that they don’t deserve to be where they are; only last place Darmstadt has a worse GD, xGD and xPts total. The Billy Goats have won just four times all season, so the price on them this week (against a clearly superior side) seems ridiculous. They’ve also lost four of their last five here on home soil. 

A loss here by Koln would all but seal their relegation fate. But it’s not like Freiburg comes to RheinEnergieStadion absent any motivation. They are chasing European football next season. Currently level with Hoffenheim at 40 points, a win here would move them into 7th, which would mean back to the Europa League (where they made the Round of 16 this season). I just don’t see any real justification why the visitors should be underdogs in this fixture, given they won the reverse 2-0 (back in December) and have three straight away wins coming into Saturday. 3% Freiburg +0.25 (Play to -135)