4% Over Giants/Phillies (7:10 ET): Admittedly, it’s a bit risky to be betting an Over when the Giants are involved right now as we’re talking about a ballclub that has now failed to score more than three runs in nine consecutive contests. But the road team gets to face Taijuan Walker Sunday night and the Phillies’ right-hander did NOT have a great 2024 debut last Sunday, giving up six runs against San Diego. So I see this as a chance for the Giants’ bats to “wake up” and the good news is we also have the Phillies’ bats, which put up 14 runs yesterday. I’d say this total is curiously low. 

Going against Walker Sunday is a big reprieve for San Francisco after facing Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez the previous two days. If you’ve been following along, then you may recall that I released a free play last Sunday on the Padres team total (Over 4.5), noting the same thing (they were getting Walker after facing Nola and Suarez) and - as I already mentioned - SD found plenty of success at the plate in that game. I’ll also keep “banging the drum” on a Phillies’ bullpen that has a 6.31 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. The bottom line is that we should see the Giants’ break out of their recent offensive funk tonight. 

To that point, the road team is a slight favorite in this one. But I’d rather bet the Over than SF because this Phillies’ team is obviously red hot at the moment (15-3 L18 games) and they are getting to go up against Logan Webb and a taxed Giants’ bullpen that had to come on early Saturday after starter Keaton Winn could only record two outs. As for Webb, he has a 5.31 ERA and 1.721 WHIP on the road and made it through just 3 ⅔ innings his last time out. He allowed four runs and nine hits. Webb is another guy whose xERA (4.44) is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA. The Giants’ bullpen (5.20 ERA) isn’t very good either. 4% Over Giants/Phillies 7.5 (Play to -125)