Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Keaton Winn Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110)

2% Keaton Win Over 15.5 Outs (3:10 ET): Giants’ starter Keaton Will got absolutely rocked his last time on the mound, giving up five runs while recording only two outs. But that was against the Phillies, the team with the best record in all of baseball, and it was in Philly where the home team is putting up 5.4 runs per game (#2 overall). Thursday afternoon, I expect a return to form for Winn as he goes from facing the best team (at least in terms of won-loss record) to the worst team in the National League. That would be Colorado, whose offense is actually dead last in wRC+ against both lefties and righties since the start of last season. 

Prior to facing the Phillies, Winn had allowed just five runs total in four starts and had gone six innings three straight starts. He’s gone at least five innings every time out, save for the last one where he was up against the Phillies and had to deal with a long rain delay, which in retrospect probably screwed him up. Now you could talk about Coors Field not being an ideal environment for any starting pitcher to find success, but the fact of the matter is this Rockies’ lineup stinks. Even here at hitter-friendly Coors, they are putting up just 3.9 runs per game. So - as I’ve already alluded to - this should be an ideal bounce back spot for Winn. 

Winn doesn’t even need to go a full six (innings) to cash his outs recorded prop in this one, so I am seeing some great value here. The Rockies have not been able to do much against Giants’ starters so far in this series. They were shutout in Tuesday’s opener, then had just one run going into the fifth inning yesterday. Don’t think Winn’s pitch count will be a problem here as Colorado tends to strike out a lot, which should make for some quick innings. Winn has also thrown just 39 pitches since 4/28 so he should be pretty well rested coming into this one. 2% Keaton Winn Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (Play to -115)