3% F5 Under Padres/D’backs (9:40 ET): Please note that I am only playing the first five innings in this NL West matchup. Last season, San Diego was perhaps the most disappointing team in all of baseball. Besieged by terrible luck in one-run games (9-23 record) as well as extra inning games (2-12), the Padres finished 82-80 despite a run differential (+104) that indicates they should have finished with 93 wins. Meanwhile, the D’backs - despite finishing the regular season with a -15 run differential - ended up playing in the World Series! That’s baseball for you. Heading into this season, I expected these two division rivals to regress appropriately to the mean and that is precisely what has occurred as San Diego is two games ahead in the win column, even though Arizona has the superior run differential (+18) this time (ha!).  

 Now that I have that out of the way, let’s talk about tonight’s starting pitching matchup of Dylan Cease (SD) vs. Slade Cecconi (ARI). Given how both guys have pitched so far, I think this number is WAY too high. Cease is the more “known” commodity obviously and has been every bit as good as expected when the Padres trade for him in the Spring. Through six starts, he has a 2.78 ERA and 0.869 WHIP. Now he did get touched up a bit last time out, allowing five runs in six innings. But that was against the Phillies. In his previous four starts - all of which were quality - Cease allowed just 4 ER total (in 25 IP). 

The Arizona lineup has now gone seven consecutive games w/o scoring more than four runs after being shut out (8-0) by the Dodgers on Wednesday. In four of those games, they scored 1 or 0 runs. So not scared of them going against a pitcher like Cease. Fortunately for the D’backs, they have Ciccone, who has turned in quality outings in each of his two starts thus far with just three runs and five hits allowed in 12 IP (11-1 KW ratio). Expect a low-scoring start to this one Friday night at Chase Field. 3% F5 Under Padres/D’backs (Play to 4.5)