Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Milwaukee Brewers -135 M Keller (RHP), C Rea (RHP) Must Start

Since splitting a four-game series with the Brewers last month (at PNC Park), the Pirates have gone just 5-10 their last 15 games. Despite all the enthusiasm surrounding the recently called-up Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh remains a bottom five team in the National League. Milwaukee, the Central Division leaders, are top five in my view. 

The Brew Crew would have a big bullpen edge in this matchup no matter what. But the fact that Pirates' relievers have seen heavy usage over the last two days puts them at an even greater disadvantage in the later innings. Also, starter Mitch Keller being 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee doesn't help either. Keller's strikeout rate has been below average in 2024 and his hard hit rate is at the highest level since 2021.

This will be the Brewers' second time seeing Keller this season, which is usually an edge to the hitters. Colin Rea, who starts tonight for Milwaukee, did NOT pitch in the previous series between these teams. The Brewers are 6-1 in Rea starts this season and he's a righty, key because the Pirates are dead last in wRC+ vs. righties. I'm showing value here on the home side, who should be priced closer to -175 on the ML.