Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Hoffenheim +0.5 (-115)

3% Hoffenheim +0.5 (9:30 AM ET): Bayern Munich is no stranger to having little to play for on the final matchweek of the Bundesliga season. But that is because - for most of the last decade - they’ve already had first place all wrapped up. Now that was certainly NOT the case in 2022/23 where a wild sequence of events resulted in them leapfrogging Dortmund on the final day. But things are definitely a bit different now as Bayern will NOT be champions and can finish no higher than second in the league. Finishing second may not exactly be the highest priority right now, especially after the gut-wrenching exit in the Champions League and the now uncertain future of Thomas Tuchel. 

Meanwhile, Hoffenheim has a lot riding on Saturday’s result. Last week’s 6-0 thrashing of Darmstadt moved them into 7th position in the table, which - for the time being - definitely means European football next season, but a lot can change Saturday. But the one thing that’s for certain is that if Hoffenheim wins here, they are guaranteed of European qualification. Considering we’re getting a half-goal head-start here, playing them on the spread seems like the logical thing to do. 

There’s even a chance Hoffenheim ends up in next season’s Champions League (if everything breaks right). What they don’t want is a loss as that could mean missing Europe all together. They’ll take a draw and so will I with this bet. Normally betting against Bayern is not something I do, but considering they have just two away wins in their last seven away Bundesliga matches and the injuries to Kim Min-jae, Leroy Sane among others, there’s only one way to go here. 3% Hoffenheim +0.5 (Play to -140)