Bryan Power

THE PLAY: 1H Pittsburgh Pirates +100 J Jones (RHP), J Steele (LHP) Must Start

2% Pittsburgh F5 (7:40 ET): Please note this play is just for the first five innings. Second straight weekend that the Pirates and Cubs are playing against one another. This time though, the “Friendly Confines” of Wrigley Field will be the host venue. The series that took place last weekend in Pittsburgh was of course highlighted by the big league debut of Pirates’ top prospect Paul Skenes, a game the Bucs held on to win 10-9. But the Cubs took two of three overall. While there’s no denying the Northsiders are having a better 2024 (compared to the Pirates), the road team looks to have a decided starting pitching edge in Friday’s opener. 

Now seemingly lost in all the Skenes hype is the Pirates’ other highly touted starter, Jared Jones, who will be back on the mound tonight. Jones faced the Cubs last weekend and delivered yet another quality start (three runs allowed, one unearned, in 6 IP), although the Pirates ended up losing that one by a score of 7-2. When Jones exited, his team was only down 3-2. (Game was tied 2-2 after 5). So blame the bad Bucs’ bullpen for that one. But by playing only the F5 in this one, we’re taking that group out of the equation and instead “simply” relying on a starter who has a 0.87 WHIP and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his eight outings. Jones is #1 in ALL of MLB right now in Stuff+. 

Now lack of run support has been an issue for Jones so far, but I don’t believe that will be the case tonight. Justin Steele is starting here for the Cubs and considering he just gave up six runs (including three homers) to the Pirates last time out, it’s more than reasonable to expect a strong start to the game here from the Pirates’ bats. Furthermore, the Cubs are 0-3 in Steele starts this season and he’s yet to even make it through a full five innings as he missed all of April with a hamstring injury. In my eyes, Jones vs. Steele is a substantial edge towards Pittsburgh. 2% Pittsburgh F5 (Play to -110)