Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Newcastle United 0.0 (-135)

3% Newcastle United PK (11:00 AM ET): Playing draw no bet here as I think that price is awfully cheap on Newcastle, who needs to win to keep any hopes of European football alive for next season. The Magpies enter the final matchday of the season 7th in the Premier League table with 57 points, and thanks to their +21 goal differential (4th best in the league) they can’t drop, provided they at least match Manchester United’s result on Sunday. A win here could also move them into 6th (depending on what Chelsea does), which would guarantee Newcastle European football for 2024/25. 

It would behoove the Magpies to try and move into 6th as there’s no guarantee 7th place gets the Europa Conference League spot (would need Man U to lose to Man City in the FA Cup Final). The good thing for Newcastle on Sunday, at least in terms of getting a result, is that they are facing Brentford, a club with nothing to play for here as the Bees are safely “on the beach” (i.e. no threat of relegation and can’t finish in the European places). Brentford is off a last gasp win over Bournemouth last weekend and has only been beaten once in their last eight EPL fixtures. However, looking through the numbers, there’s no doubt that they are the inferior side here. 

Considering the “must-win” nature of this match and our bet would be a push in case of a draw, I think this is a great price to get Newcastle on this final matchday. A lot of other teams needing to win across Europe are way overpriced this weekend. That simply is not the case here. Note that Brentford has just FIVE home wins all season and those came against the bottom four in the table + West Ham. I was really surprised that Newcastle lost at Old Trafford midweek (did win the xG battle!) Look for them to bounce back and get the win they so desperately need on Sunday. 3% Newcastle United PK (Draw No Bet)