Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION The Strongest -0.75 (-110)

The Strongest vs Estudiantes La Plata
Copa Libertadores, Thursday, 8pm ET

Play: The Strongest -0.75
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

Group C is one of the most volatile groups in the Copa Libertadores, with Huachipato sitting at the top with 5 points, The Strongest and Estudiantes La Plata both sitting at 4 points and Gremio are 4th with 3 points, so everything is open.

The Strongest were eliminated in the semi-finals of their domestic Apertura intheir last match, played on April 28th, and having rested since then. That loss prompted a change in coach, as they brought back Spanish native Ismael Rescalvo, in his 2nd tour with the team, and this is a coach that has managed several South American teams, with a good degree of success, especially in the Copa Libertadores/Sudamericana. The Strongest are under the new manager bounce, and playing at home, which is my next point. 

The Strongest are a Bolivian team, and what we like about Bolivian teams is that they are always very competitive at home. There's several reasons for that, but the main one is elevation. This match is played at Bolivian capital La Paz, which sits at an altitude of 11,940 feet, and if you are new here, this altitude means brutal conditions for anyone that isn't accustomed to it. The Bolivians live, train and play there, so they have no problems. But visiting teams always suffer due to the weather conditions up there, and we've seen Bolivian teams get the best out of very strong sides, year in and year out. Now get this: 

The Strongest's record against Argentinian teams (regardless of venue) is W9 D2 L20, a 29% winrate with a -25 goal difference. Really unimpressive. But if we isolate their home matches against Argentinian sides, their record reads W9 D2 L4, rising up to a 60% winrate with a +11 goal difference. That's a huge improvement, and a testament of how these Bolivian teams might suck on the road but they are always very competitive at home. 

For context, I will also include matches against Brazilian teams, just to paint this picture better: The Strongest's record against Brazilian sides (regardless of venue): W12 D4 L23, a 30.8% winrate with a -30 goal difference. Again, that's bad. But if we isolate their home matches, their record reads W11 D4 L5, a 55% winrate with a +12 goal difference. We tend to fade Bolivian sides on the road, but we do bet on them when they are at home. 

Estudiantes La Plata played their last match 4 days ago, and what a match it was, as they beat Velez Sarsfield in the penalty shootout of the Copa de la Liga final, and won the trophy. However, they played 90 minutes of regular time, 30 minutes of extra time and the penalty shoot-out, and that match might have been registered as a home match, but it was played on a neutral venue, at Santiago del Estero, which is a distance of 617 miles away from Estudiantes' home at La Plata. That means that they had to travel back home, had a HUGE fiesta on Monday till late at night, only to reembark for a very demanding trip to Bolivia on Tuesday, which leaves them very little time to get accustomed to the Bolivian weather.
For context, other teams that have to travel to Bolivia for these international matches do so 3-4 days in advance (if they can afford to), so the Estudiantes players will be carrying some fatigue from playing 120+ minutes on Sunday, a hung-over from partying till late Monday, and a demanding trip to Bolivia. 

That's way too many words but I had to get it all out of my system. We like the Bolivians here, the price is not too good on their ML (-145), so we will have to pivot to the Asian Spread. 

Take 1u on The Strongest -0.75 (-110)

Final Note: During Estudiantes La Plata's celebrations, one of their players, Tiago Palacios, was involved in multiple car accidents. First he hit a parked car and fled the scene, then he went on to crash his car in a gas station pump, injuring a worker in the process. He was arrested, found with 1.84 grams of alcohol per liter of blood, almost THREE times above the legal limit of 0.5 g/l, and he was detained until Tuesday. The team issued a statement that pretty much said that "these things happen, he is a kid and he needs support", and they took him with them in th trip to Bolivia. 

If you want my opinion, at 23 years old you are not a kid anymore, you are a grown ass man and you shouldn't receive any preferential treatment. I'm also disgusted by the team's stance to try and brush this under the carpet. If you wanna put your money on this team, be my guest, I was already going to fade them before finding this out, now it's just the icing on the cake.