Braga vs Casa Pia
Portugal, Sunday, 1pm ET

Play: Braga win & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -135
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

Braga are sitting 4th in the Portuguese league, a spot that leads to the Europa Conference League next season. They are 4 points behind Porto (with a match in hand) and the 3rd spot that leads to the Europa League instead. Braga have two very tough matches to conclude the season, as they are hosted away at Guimaraes in a hateful Derby do Minho, a local derby that is also crucial for the top-4 spots, as Guimaraes are sitting just 2 points behind Braga. And Braga's last match is at home against Porto, so Braga can potentially move up to 3rd, but also move down to 5th and miss Europe altogether next season. 

They are hosting Casa Pia on Sunday, who beat Chaves last week and essentially saved their season, as they mathematically avoided relegation and have little to play for. Braga easily beat Casa Pia by 3-1 in the reverse fixture, and even though these two played for a 1-1 draw in the Cup earlier in the season, Braga were clearly better and deserved the win. 

Braga's defense has been in shambles all season and I wouldn't be surprised if they conceded against an indifferent Casa Pia side (who, by the way, are doing better on the road than they are at home). But anything other than a win for Braga could have catastrophic implications for next season, and they would be foolish to drop points in this match. 

Taking 3u on a Same Game Parlay with Braga to win & Over 2.5 Goals (-135), in a match where Braga can score 3 on their own.