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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(201213) Napoli at (201214) Udinese

Event:
(201213) Napoli at (201214) Udinese
Sport/League:
ISAL
Date/Time:
May 6, 2024 2PM EDT
Play Rating:
1%
Odds:
135
Play:
1% – REGULATION Osimhen to score anytime (+135)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Udinese vs Napoli
Serie A, Monday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Osimhen to score anytime
Odds at Time of Release: +135
Line Parameter: Playable to +100

Udinese are hosting Napoli on Monday, with the hosts looking for a win to escape the relegation zone (currently 3 points below Empoli) and Napoli looking for a win to climb inside the top-8 spots that lead to the European competitions (currently tied with Fiorentina above them). 

Staying away from picking a side here, as Udinese have been Draw Masters this season with 17 draws in 34 matches, but they are coming into this match in terrible form. Napoli are also in poor form right now, winning just 1 of L/8.

It's really tricky to pick a side here (maybe another Draw?), and totals are tricky as well. I had this pencilled as a Both Teams to Score when it was at -110, but that's now down to -160 and unplayable. However, there is a player prop that I really like:

Napoli's star forward Victor Osimhen hasn't been able to replicate last season's tally mainle because of injuries and his involvement in the Africa Cup of Nations earlier in January. He has still scored 14 goals in 22 matches in the Serie A, which is actually good enough for him to be the 3rd most productive scorer in the Serie A, but he ranks #2 in Goals/90 with 0.71, behind only Lautaro Martinez. 

There are several milestones for Osimhen in this particular match against Udinese (where I'm not sure Napoli are even going to win), as he has scored IN EACH OF L/5 H2H against them and he can now become the 3rd player in Napoli's history to score a in six consecutive matches against the same team, after Gonzalo Higuain vs Lazio (2013-2016) and Dries Mertens vs Bologna (between 2016-2019). Osimhen will also become the first Nigerian player to do so, so there's several milestones on the line for Osimhen. 

He is running hot right now with 3 goals in his L/4 matches, and Napoli will also be missing Kvaratskhelia, which probably means more touches for Osimhen. He is also looking for a potential move out of Napoli this summer (Chelsea are interested among others), so scoring goals will only increase his stock. 

Take 1u on Victor Osimhen to score anytime +135
 

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