San Jose vs LAFC
MLS, Saturday, 7:30pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

San Jose are coming off a balanced 1-1 draw on the road against Nashville, in what was probably an attempt to shape up their defense a little bit. But it came at the cost of the offense, as they generated exactly 1.00 xG. San Jose are the biggest under-achievers in the MLS right now, and have been for most of the season, as they have 4 actual points but 13 Expected Points, meaning that they have 9 fewer points than they "should" have. 

San Jose have scored 14 goals out of 13.9 xG (right on track), but their defense has conceded 25 actual goals out of 14.3 xGA, which is a huge difference and we will most likely see these numbers correct themselves sooner or later. We already seen that in their last match, but can they keep it up against an LAFC side that has been picking up steam as of late? 

LAFC are coming off a 3-2 home win over Portland, they are now on a 4-match unbeaten streak (W2 D2 L0) and have lost just 1 of L/6 (W3 D1 L2). They have scored 2+ goals in each of L/6 matches, a total of 17 goals, but have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of L/5 too. LAFC have yet to win on the road (W0 D1 L3), conceding 2+ goals in all 4 matches, failing to score twice but scoring 2 goals in the other two. 

This is a match-up with a long history of Both Teams to Score and/or Over 2.5 Goals. In fact, Each of L/6 and 10 of L/11 H2H matches had Both Teams to Score, and the combination of Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is 9-2 in L/11. Oddly enough, San Jose have won each of L/5 home matches against LAFC (W5 D0 L2 all-time), scoring 2+ goals in all 5 wins. Both Teams to Score is 5-2 in this venue, and Over 2.5 goals is 6-1. 

San Jose are under a lot of pressure right now, they have won just once in 10 matches this season, and they have the worst defense in the MLS. They are 8-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals, and 8-2 to the Both Teams to Score. 

LAFC have yet to win on the road, their offense is producing a lot of goals, and their defense is bleeding. They are also 8-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals and 6-4 to the Both Teams to Score (but on a 5-0 run in L/5). 

Long story short, we see goals here, and a lot of them. There is an off-chance that San Jose found a way to shape up their defense, but the amount of evidence pointing towards a high-scoring match is staggering. And last note, San Jose's marquee signing (Hernan Lopez, a very creative midfielder who came for a record fee) is cleared to make his debut. 

Taking 3u on Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125 Draftkings)