Metz vs Rennes
Ligue 1, Saturday, 1pm ET

Play: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Playable to -120

Metz are sitting inside the relegation zone, at the 16th spot that leads to the relegation playoffs. They have 29 points, as many as Le Havre above them (but worse goal difference, that's why they are sitting below Le Havre), with Nantes sitting at 32 points and Lorient sitting at 26 points, so nothing is certain regarding relegation. 

One thing's for sure, Metz need points, and they also need to improve their goal difference (currently sitting at -19), as this tiebreaker might well come into play at the end of the season. With two more matches to go after this, Metz are facing Strasbourg and PSG, so they have an uphill battle. It will all come down to how Mikhautadze playes for Metz, who is their focal point in the offense. 

Rennes are coming off the most exciting match of the Ligue 1 this season, where they lost to Brest by 5-4! Incredible match, but Rennes proved again that they are in terrible shape right now, losing 5 of L/6. They are on a 3-0 run to the Over 2.5 Goals, prior to that they had 3 consecutive unders (albeit against PSG, Monaco and Strasbourg), and prior to that they were on a 6-1 run to the Over 2.5 Goals. 

Really bad defense, concedes goals to anybody and Metz can certainly hurt them here. Rennes are also looking for the win to chase a top-6 finish that will grant them a European ticket for next season, but they are 7 points behind Lens and time is running out. 

It's not easy to back Metz here, as Rennes have won each of L/6 H2H matches, blasting them by 5-1 in the reverse fixture, and by 6-1 and 3-0 in the 2021/22 season. Rennes are more than capable of scoring 3 on their own, but their defense is for the streets. 

Take 2u on the Over 2.5 Goals (-105)