Racing Montevideo vs Argentinos Jrs
Copa Sudamericana, Tuesday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 2 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Playable to -115

Argentinos Jrs are sittign at the top of Group F with 6 points, Racing are 2nd with 5, Corinthians are 3rd with 4 and Nacional Asuncion are 4th with 1 point. This is a tight race for the top two spots in the group, as the top seed will move to the Copa Sudamericana round of 16, while the 2nd team will go to the round of 32 (or the intermediate stage), meaning that they will play a knockout match against a team that will come from the Copa Libertadores. That means that absolutely noone wants to finish 2nd, and the teams will fight for the top seed. And keep in mind that Corinthians are also in this group, a team with a very heavy shirt, good pedigree, but a struggling giant as of late. 

Racing Montevideo are coming off a 4-2 loss that put an end to their 8-match unbeaten streak (W4 D4 L0). They have been mediocre in the defensive department, keeping just 6 clean sheets in 15 matches in all competitions this season, with 3 of those coming against teams from the bottom half of their domestic league, 2 of those coming against Cerro Largo (with matches against this team usually ending with very few goals), and their other clean sheet was in an unexpected 3-0 win away at Argentinos Jrs. 

But that match was in a crucial period for Argentinos, as they were fighting in their domestic Copa de la Liga playoffs, so take that result with a grain of salt. Argentinos actually failed to make it to the final of that competition, as they lost in the penalty shoot-out against a 10-man Velez side. 

However, that happened back in April 28th, with no competitive matches ever since, so they had the time to rest, reset, and overcome whatever feelings they might have had from that lost semi-final. Argentinos Jrs are on a 5-1 run to the Both Teams to Score on the road, and 9-2 dating back to last season. 

That 3-0 loss at home against Racing Montevideo in the reverse fixture was one of the most uneven matches in terms of what happened, and what was expected to happen. Argentinos Jrs were held scoreless with 1.02 xG and Racing scored THREE goals out of 0.41 xG. Do NOT expect that to happen again, as Argentinos Jrs have been one of the best teams in Argentina in the past season or so. 

Last but not least, Corinthians are playing a seemingly easy match against Nacional Asuncion in the other match of the group, and if they win they will have 7 points, so they will surely bypass at least one of these two (Argentinos and/or Racing). The Draw doesn't do anybody any good, and we are talking about two teams that don't keep a lot of clean sheets, but with potent offensive lines. 

Both Teams to Score is at a high +120 and definitely worth a shot here, but we feel more comfortable taking the Asian Total of Over 2 Goals (-105), a bet that might push if this is a 1-1 draw (while the BTTS would pay out), but it offers a layer of protection if this match somehow ends at 2-0 or 0-2.

Take 1u on the Over 2 Goals (-105)