Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Under 3 Goals 
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

Real Madrid did a great job in the first leg in Germany, forcing a 2-2 draw and taking advantage of Bayern Munich's numerous mistakes in the back-line. They will now play at home, where they've been extremely good through the years. Fresh off winning their 36th La Liga title over the weekend, Real Madrid have not lost a single match at home this season (W18 D4 L0), while scoring 2+ goals in each of L/5 home matches, and that includes matches against Manchester City and Barcelona.  

Bayern Munich are coming off another loss, a 3-1 at Stuttgart over the weekend, and have now won just 4 of L/9 in all competitions (W4 D2 L3), but their focus is completely shifted to the Champions League. Their defensive problems have been obvious all season, with Bayern keeping just 3 clean sheets in L/19 matches since late January, and all 3 clean sheets came at home. They have kept just 5 clean sheets in 23 away matches in all competitions this season, and ZERO clean sheets in L/11 away matches, while conceding 2+ goals in 8 of L/10 away matches, even against the unlikeliest of opponents, like Heidenheim, Darmstadt, Bochum, Freiburg and Augsburg. 

Real Madrid have scored 2+ goals in 5 of L/6 matches against Bayern Munich, they scored twice in Munich and they are now playing at home, where they've been excellent. I don't necessarily agree with Real Madrid's favouritism, with the ML set at -115, nor do I agree with the Asian Total set at 3, which means that if you take the Over you need 4 goals to get paid. While another goal-fest might be in the works here, both coaches have defensive mindsets and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a careful match between the two. I feel like this is going to be a cat and mouse type of situation, where neither team will wanna get overexposed in such a crucial match. Taking my chances with the Under 3 Goals here, for the main reason that both coaches can set their teams to play defensively when it matters the most. 

This might seem like an unpopular opinion, but we are taking 1u on the Under 3 Goals at -120 on Wednesday.