PSG vs Dortmund
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: PSG -1
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

PSG were extremely unlucky to lose the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals in Germany by 1-0 against Dortmund. They generated more chances than Dortmund, they had the ball possession, they got unlucky with an early injury and, most importantly, they missed a LOT of chances to pull even, with the highlight being the DOUBLE crossbar hit and a missed header by Ruiz from a point-blank position.

Now the match-up is reversed and PSG are playing at home which is really hard for any visiting side, as only two teams have managed to beat them at home (Barcelona and Nice, both won by 3-2). They beat Dortmund in the group stage of the Champions League by 2-0 (in a match where they generated 2.15 xG and dortmund had just 0.54 xG), they had a 1-1 draw against Newcastle (where they generated a whopping 4.38 xG and Newcastle had 1.40 xG), they beat AC Milan 3-0 and Sociedad 2-0 before losing to Barcelona by 3-2.

PSG now need any kind of win, with a 1-goal win sending this tie to extra time, and a win by 2 goals or more sending them to the final. Dortmund have been lucky on the road, losing the xG battle in 4 of 5 away matches in the Champions League (W2 D1 L2), beating Newcastle (who saw their star striker Isak get injured at the 15th minute) and AC Milan (in a match where AC Milan missed an early penalty kick that would have surely turned the tides).

The chances are going to be there for PSG, they are playing at home where they've been extremely good all season (don't look too much into their recent matches as they have won the title and have been using experimental lineups in recent weeks, with Mbappe at the bench). The only question is whether they will make them count. Dortmund have done well to get to this stage but they have not been as effective on the road this season.

With the result of the first leg being so fragile, PSG know that any kind of win will keep them alive. If they win by 2 or more they go to the final. I think that PSG -1 is essentially a free hit, worst case scenario they win by 1 and this goes to extra time. PSG have been unlucky so far, Dortmund have been lucky, I think this match evens things out.

I see this as a 2-0 / 3-0 / 3-1 win for PSG, so we are taking PSG -1 (-120) with confidence on the second leg of these semi finals on Tuesday, May 7th. 

Take 5u on PSG -1 (-120)