Verona vs Fiorentina
Serie A, Sunday, 9am ET

Play: Verona +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

Right off the bat, Verona are catching Fiorentina in a possibly distracted position, as Fiorentina are in-between the semi finals of the Europa Conference League. They played on Thursday (while Verona are fresh since last week), where they scored a late goal against a 10-man Club Brugge side to eventually win by 3-2 at home, and now have a tricky match coming up on Wednesday, where they will travel to Belgium for the second leg. 

Fiorentina hve done a poor job in the weekends prior to a mid-week Europa Conference League match, besides that 5-1 over Sassuolo at home in their last one. The truth is that they failed to win their last 8 matches prior to a mid-week match (W0 D4 L4). And now they must rest their starters and keep them fresh for what is the match of the season coming up on Wednesday. 

Fiorentina are indeed chasing some points here, as t hey are sitting 8th with 50 points and 6 points behind Lazio, so theoretically they can make a push for the 7th spot, but they have a huge match coming up, with the potential to send them to a final. 

Verona are sitting 15th with 31 points and just 2 points above the relegation zone. They absolutely need some points here, as their last 3 matches are tricky, and they would surely want to get the job (to avoid relegation) as soon as possible. 
Verona might have a -0.37 xG difference/game at home, but compared to what Fiorentina have on the road (-0.32/game), there's not really any big differences between the two. 

This is far from a high-unit bet, but we got one team that is fighting for survival and the other team is gearing up for the match of the season. 

Take 1u on Verona +0.25 (-115)