San Jose vs Oakland Roots
US Open Cup, Tuesday, 10pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -112
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

It's the round of 32 of the US Open Cup, and this is the round where MLS teams are introduced into the competition. San Jose have been struggling all season but we highlighted their "good" underlying numbers and they did come off with a 3-1 win over LAFC over the weekend (in a match where we took Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals as our Best Bet for Saturday). 

I'm going to echo what I said on Saturday, that San Jose have a broken defense that has conceded 26 goals in 11 matches, but their xGA reads 15.9, so they are conceding way more than they should, while their offense has scored 17 goals (out of 15.3 xG). 

They are 9-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals with an average of 3.9 goals/match, and 4-1 to the Over 2.5 goals at home with an average of 3.6 goals/match. San Jose have kept ZERO clean sheets so far, and Both Teams to Score is 9-2. 

Oakland Roots are sitting at the 10th spot of the USL Western Conference with 8 points after 9 matches (W2 D2 L5), scoring 9 goals and conceding 16. They are 5-4 to the Over 2.5 Goals, but 3-1 on the road, having kept zero clean sheets and conceding 2+ goals in 5 of 9. 

They have scored in 3 of 4 away matches, but their defense is in shambles, and San Jose can get a huge confidence boost with a win here. However, the US Open Cup is traditionally a competition of upsets, and San Jose might just prioritize getting back on track in the MLS over the US Open Cup. Rotation is surely going to happen, but that's not necessarily a bad thing for San Jose, who have many good options (mainly in the offense) coming from the bench. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Oakland managed to score against San Jose's porous defense, and maybe even cause a "Cupset", but there is definitely value in taking the Over 2.75 Goals here, which is a split line between Over 2.5 and Over 3 Goals. San Jose have the talent up front to score 3 on their own, and I don't think they keep a clean sheet either. 

Final Note: There seems to be some kind of rivalry between the two sides because Quakes owner John Fisher also owns the Oakland Athletics, who are moving to Sacramento next season before their planned permanent relocation to Las Vegas. There's been some tension between him and Oakland fans, and the Roots will surely have an extra incentive to hurt San Jose here. 

Take 1u on the Over 2.75 Goals (-112)