Mark Zinno

THE PLAY: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-122) S Lugo (RHP), C Bassitt (RHP) Must Start

The Blue Jays and Royals close out their three game series in Toronto. Chris Bassitt starts for Toronto. He was rocked in his last home start against the Dodgers, so this is a perfect time to come back with him at home again. Bassitt has been very good at home in Toronto. Last start aside, this season in his previous two home starts he went a combined 13 innings, allowed nine hits, two runs and struck out 13. Seth Lugo has been equally as impressive here for the Royals. Lugo has given up two runs or less in four of his five starts, while going at least five innings in all of them. I know the Toronto bats have been good at home, but Lugo should get the job done here as he's holding opposing hitters to .184 batting average the first time through the order. 

THE PLAY: 1Q Miami Heat +4.5 (-110)

Not gonna overthink this one here. If Miami has any chance to win this game, they can't fall behind early. With the exception of Game 2, Miami has not shot the ball well. They don't have the shooting to catch up. So, it feels logical to assume that if they are trailing by more than 5 in the first quarter, they would be trailing by more than eight at half, which is the first half line. Boston has one of the better defenses in the league. Miami's pace is slow and if they can hang around for the first 12 minutes, they are going to give themselves a chance. I don't like the game script that they are down by double digits early and they come roaring back late. So I'm going to take a chance that their best shot is come out hot and ride it as long as they can.