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Mark Zinno

Mark Zinno

(529) Denver Nuggets at (530) Los Angeles Lakers

Event:
(529) Denver Nuggets at (530) Los Angeles Lakers
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 25, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – Denver Nuggets -110
Result:
Win
Analysis

The defending champion Denver Nuggets head to Los Angeles to face the Lakers leading 2-0 in their series. I've said this repeatedly over the past week: there isn't anything the Lakers do better than the Nuggets. Even when the Lakers play their best game, they still aren't good enough to beat Denver. That was the case in Game 2. Los Angeles shot nearly 49% from the field and just over 43% from three-point range and still lost. Denver has been outshot in both games and managed to win them both. The Nuggets are shooting 45.2% for the series. As a team during the regular season, they shoot 49.6%. If they get anywhere close to that number, I don't think the Lakers have a chance because the Nuggets defense is too good. I also think that the Lakers are due for some shooting regression as they are hitting 49% from the field through the first two games. I don't expect that to continue. Los Angeles has to be a little emotionally defeated after the way they lost Game 2, plus I won't count on D'Angelo Russell to shoot 7-11 from three point range again in back-to-back games. That was the biggest part of the reason that LA built that big lead. And if the Nuggets get anywhere close to their 37.4% shooting from beyond the arc, as they are shooting just 30.3% from three so far, the Lakers are also likely dead. Lastly, I think the line movement is too much. A six-point drop doesn't account for just switching the series to LA. I make this line Denver -3.5. So there is some value there for me. The Nuggets are the better team. By a wide margin. 

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