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Mark Zinno

Mark Zinno

(557) Boston Celtics at (558) Miami Heat

Event:
(557) Boston Celtics at (558) Miami Heat
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 29, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-115
Play:
5% – (557) Boston Celtics at (558) Miami Heat Boston Celtics Total Over 106.5 (-115)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

The Boston Celtics look to take a 3-1 series advantage over the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their playoff series. I'm going to look at the Celtics team total, which feels like an incredibly low number. The Celtics going over relies solely on two things: their shot attempts being more consistent with their regular season numbers and the number of threes that they make. The Celtics average 90 attempts during the regular season. They have taken 82, 80 and 82 in the three games of this series. If they can get more shots off in this game, that should put them in position to go over this number as long as their field goal percentage is close to the 47.7% shooting they average on the road this season. The other portion is the raw number of threes that Boston makes per game. Boston led the NBA in three-pointers made per game at 16.5. In the three games in this series they've made 22, 12 and 11. If the Celtics make 14 or 15 threes, they should get over this total. My feeling is that now that we are deeper into the series, shooting should normalize as we've seen for several of the team in this NBA postseason. It would benefit the Celtics to play faster and force Miami out of their slow pace as they lack the offensive weapons to keep up. The longer Boston allows Miami to hang around, the more dangerous it will be. I think Joe Mazzulla know this and will push the scoring here. 

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