World Cup Group I Betting Preview | France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq

World Cup Group I Preview

Did you know…In the early 2000s, GoldSheet had a sister publication named European Soccer Weekly?! Long before every European soccer (cough football) match was broadcast in the US on ESPN, Peacock and Paramount, Bruce Marshall and Co. were breaking down the action on the pitch. Bruce shares his thoughts on World Cup Group I, which features one of the pre-tournament favorites and arguably the world’s best goal scorer.

World Cup Group I Odds

Team	Win the Group	Round of 16	Win the Tournament
France	-220	-450	+470
Norway	+290	-135	+3500
Senegal	+800	+210	+12500
Iraq	+7000	+2500	+250000

Odds above courtesy of FanDuel as of June 5.

France

This will be the curtain call for Didier Deschamps on the sidelines for Les Bleus, as he steps down after Copa Mundial, to be replaced by Zinedine Zidane (which has them rather excited in Paris). Though perhaps we shouldn’t complain about a coach who has won a World Cup (2018) and been to a final in another (2022), we aren’t the only ones who think Descahmps might be a bit too pragmatic for his own good.

With attacking riches galore, France has nonetheless often played while appearing to ride the handbrake for Descahmps, whose deliberate approach seems a carryover from his Serie A playing days at Juventus. To us, much like Gareth Southgate for years with England, or, more recently, perhaps, Mikel Arteta at Arsenal; successful all, yes, but could France use a sharper edge in attack mode a bit more often?

Deschamps doesn’t have his teams completely under wraps, but how often have we seen Kylian Mbappe and friends spend too much time in second gear, such as in the Euro semfdinal vs. Spain two years ago, when failing to press the advantage of an early 1-0 lead, caught and passed before halftime, never making up the deficit?

The attack options are there; Mbappe, current Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembélé (after bagging several more big goals for PSG in the Champions League, perhaps better value at +500 than Mbappe to lead France in scoring), Bradley Barcola, Desiree Doue, Rayan Cherki, Michael Olise, Marcus Thuram…the list goes on, so deep that even Antoine Griezmann’s international retirement passed with little comment.

Injured Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) also shouldn’t be missed, with Crystal Palace’s Conference League hero Jean-Philippe Mateta taking his place on the 26-man roster. The midfield, however, while not pedestrian, doesn’t perform at quite the same level, while key defender William Saliba (Arsenal) is an iffy participant due to a back injury.

Group I is also the closest to a “Group of Death” in this World Cup, with Norway and Senegal, in particular, posing potential problems, reflected in France’s group win price (-250), much less than other top contenders such as France, Argentina, or England. If results go to form, there are also potential knockout-round battles vs. Germany in the Round of 16 and the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, the latter holding France to 0-0 at the last Euros.

The potential is there for Deschamps to go out a big winner with a parade down the Champs-Elysses upon the return home. Or, perhaps like Euro 2020 (played in 2021, of course), when Switzerland scored the knockout blow in a Round of 16 PK shootout, Yann Sommer denying Mbappe at the end, and no one bothering to show at Orly or CDG when Les Bleus return home?

Norway

Buckle up, as Norway reminded in the qualifiers when banging in 37 goals (16 of those by Man City’s Erling Haaland) and allowing only five to breeze into the field of 48 and stamp itself as a danger team to watch.

To say the Norwegians play on the front foot might be putting things mildly, and we suspect Haaland & Co could offer some of the best viewing across the next month. Granted, this is Norway’s first appearance at a World Cup since 1998 in France, when making a splash in group play by beating Brazil, but time away from the big stage doesn’t appear an issue with so many performers starring in the Prem, Liga and elsewhere. A pair of romps (3-0 and 4-1) past a disappointing Italy in the qualifiers was another warning shot.

It’s not just Haaland; either; Atletico de Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth emerged as quite a target man for Diego Simeone this season, and along with defender Kristoffer Ajer, Norway can prove a nightmare for foes on set pieces, with all three of those mentioned at 6’5 or taller. Culture comes in the form of Arsenal midfield pilot Martin Odegaard…the Norwegians are indeed loaded with key performers from top European sides.

Downside? To paraphrase former American football coach Jim Mora….”Defense? Did you say defense?: Norway doesn’t defend all that well, and 35-year old goalie Orjan Nyland does not rate among the top shot-stoppers either in Europe or at the World Cup.

Still, good viewing will be on offer, and we might feel a bit more likely to give Haaland a whirl at the Golden Boot if we thought Norway could advance a couple of rounds in the knockout phase. As it is, Haaland could still be worth a flyer at +1400, as he might only need five matches (into the Round of 16) to stay seriously in that top-scorer mix.

Senegal

Africa’s best team? A chance to advance to the semis, further than any Africa side at any World Cup? A likely yes on the former, and a we’ll see on the latter, but the point is clear…Senegal looks dangerous.

The controversial AFCON finale in December vs., Morocco might not yet have come to a final resolution, but no matter, the Lions know about playing on the big stage, and have some big match performers, especially vet striker Sadio Mane, nowadays scoring in the Saudi League after establishing top credentials at Liverpool and Bayern Munich. For Mane, 2026 is also potentially redemptive after missing the 2022 World Cup in Qatar due to injury, a tourney in which Senegal became the first side to be eliminated on fair-play rules as the last tiebreaker before qualifying for the knockout phase.

On the sideline, Papa Thiaw prefers a more direct approach than predecessor Aliou Cisse, so Mane, Bayern Munich’s Nicolas Jackson, and marauding Crystal Palace midfielder Ismaila Sarr will have their chances to shine. There are established pieces behind them, including buccaneering left-back El Hadji Malick (West Ham).

With 20 players based in top European leagues, the competition level at the World Cup shouldn’t be a bother, either. Moreover, as eight groups will send their third-place teams into the kncokout phase, there’s a very good chance Senegal advances, with Norway and France in particular put on alert. A result vs. either of those two and a win over Iraq should safely see the Lions through.

Iraq

Drawing the short straws out of the selection pots, it seems, the Iraqis find themselves in perhaps the toughest group, dampening enthusiasm for their First World Cup since Mexico 1986. A first-ever knockout round appearance seems quite unlikely, but don’t tell that to manager Graham Arnold, who took unfancied Australia to the last 16 at the 2022 World Cup.

A mammoth, 21-game qualifying run thru the AFC (Asia) qualifiers included two nervy playoff wins, first over UAE in an Asian eliminator, then topping Bolivia in Mexico with a spot in the final 48 on the line.

Still, lacking the sort of flair that a longshot might normally require to cause a stir, Arnold’s troops will rely on work-rate and grit to overcome a lack of technical skill, though vet striker Aymen Hussein did score nine times in the qualifiers. Most of the players, including Hussein, feature for club sides in the Middle East, with only a handful at European sides, including strikers Ali Jasim (Como) and Ali Al-Hamadi (Ipswich Town), plus All–Name midfielder Zidane Iqbal (featured in the Dutch Eredivisie at FC Utrecht).

Nabbing a draw somewhere in group play might not be impossible and could impact the final table in the I quartet, though we’re not too interested in Iraq’s +300 price to qualify for the knockout phase.

World Cup Group I Recommended Wagers

France – Best Bet: To finish group 1-2 with Norway at -120. Bigger Price Watch: Exactly 7 points in group play at +220; exit at quarterfinals +300; France top scorer (must win) Ousmane Dembélé at +500.

Norway – Best Bet: Norway to score more than 7.5 goals at +100. France-Norway to finish 1-2 in group at -120. Bigger Price Watch: Exit Round of 16 at +260; Norway to land on 7 points in group phase at +450; Erling Haaland Golden Boot at +1400.

Senegal – Best Bet: Senegal to reach the Round of 16 at +250. Bigger Price Watch: Senegal exactly on 4 points in group phase +260; Sadio Mane top Senegal scorer (must win) at +300; Senegal to finish the top CAF (African) entry at +350.

Iraq – Best Bet: Iraq to land on 1 point at +275. Bigger Price Watch: Aymen Hussein as Iraq’s top scorer (must win) at +500.

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