World Cup Group J Betting Preview | Argentina, Austria, Algeria and Jordan

World Cup Group J Preview

Did you know…In the early 2000s, GoldSheet had a sister publication named European Soccer Weekly?! Long before every European soccer (cough football) match was broadcast in the US on ESPN, Peacock and Paramount, Bruce Marshall and Co. were breaking down the action on the pitch. Bruce shares his thoughts on World Cup Group J, led by the defending champs from Argentina.

World Cup Group J Odds

Team	Win the Group	Round of 16	Win the Tournament
Argentina	-280	-260	+1000
Austria	+360	+185	+10000
Algeria	+800	+280	+30000
Jordan	+6500	+2500	+250000

Odds above courtesy of FanDuel as of June 6.

Argentina

No country has won the World Cup back-to-back since Brazil in 1958-62 (we thought winning the NBA back-to-back was tough!) and Argentina will be the next to try. Not even with Diego Maradona in the side in 1990 could Argentina repeat, though coming close after a wild ride thru the knockout phase and almost forcing West Germany into extra time before going down 1-0, reduced to nine men in the process.

This looks a better Argentina side than in 1990 but we are hardly sure of any greater success. Granted, the Argentines have been winning these big events lately, with a couple of Copa Americas included in the last five years along with the World Cup in Qatar.

All eyes are on Lionel Messi and how decorated manager Lionel Scaloni might be using him in light of Messi’s recent leg/hamstring injury; reports suggest he will play in Copa Mundial though Scaloni might be inclined to introduce Messi onto the pitch either in brief appearances or perhaps not at all in the opener vs. Algeria on June 17 in Kansas City.

The holders do not lack for other attacking options, with Atletico de Madrid’s livewire Julian Alvarez now one of the hottest commodities in Europe and perhaps a good bet at +300 to lead Argentina in scoring if Messi is to miss any action or perhaps be compromised. The midfield engine remains relentless with Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez and Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister keeping the pistons firing as there is a collective effort to limit Messi’s defensive responsibilities and allow him to do what he does best…magic with the ball.

Yet there were also defensive issues that surfaced in the qualifiers despite comfy passage, and the injury watch at the back focuses on Tottenham’s Cristian Romero, who missed the last month of the EPL campaign with a knee issue and is in a race to regain fitness after Scaloni gambled a bit by naming him to the final 26.

An aging squad, there could also be problems posed by group foes Austria and Algeria, who both like to press and run, run, run, and a look-ahead at possible KO round foes suggests a collision with Portugal in the quarterfinals…that might be where the bid to repeat ends.

Austria

One of the surprise package of the Euros two years ago, “Das Team” is back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998 full of confidence after finishing ahead of both France and the Netherlands in group play at Germany two summers ago. A bitter loss to Turkey at the top of the knockout phase spoiled the fun, but Austrians are back in love with their team because of their nonstop “gegenpress” as introduced by veteran manager Ralf Rangnick, who has kicked around European football for decades but finally seeming to find the right fit.

The attacking philosophy has been drilled into the troops, and several veteran campaigners like defender David Alaba (Real Madrid, previously Bayern Munich), sage winger Marcel Sabitzer (key cog in Borussia Dortmund’s run to the Champions League final two years ago, as well as the Euros), and vet striker Marko Arnautovic (most recently Red Star Belgrade but Inter Milan among other past stops) finally are getting long-overdue chances to shine on the biggest stage.

The qualifiers got a bit hairy as Austria, interestingly, seemed less comfortable playing against sides it was supposed to beat, and needed a 1-1 draw vs. Bosnia on the final day to final secure passage.

The style clash vs. Argentina in Arlington on June 22 fascinates, as more than a few insiders believe Austria’s relentless pace could unnerve Messi & Co (if Messi plays, that is), before the final group match vs. an Algeria side with a score to settle (more on that in the Algerian review).

By most calculations, the group scopes out to have Austria qualify out of J in the 2nd spot…which would mean a likely Round of 32 match vs. Spain, and where the ride would end, perhaps a bit prematurely. The exit at the Round of 32 is thus priced a bit prohibitively around -163 or so. Perhaps Austria would be better off as a qualifying third-place finisher if it means avoiding Spain at the top of the knockout phase?

Algeria

We can’t help but jump ahead to the final group match June 28 at Kansas City, where after 44 years the Algerians finally get another crack at the Austrians. Never mind that the 1982 World Cup in Spain was long before any of the current players were born, it’s part of Algerian soccer lore how West Germany and Austria conspired to keep Algeria from progressing into the second round at the end of the group phase, conspiring for a 1-0 West German win (featuring a kick-about for the last 80 or so minutes, as the two sides just lobbed the ball back and forth, with no serious attempt to advance) that guaranteed both passage while stranding Algeria, which had scored one of the famous upsets in World Cup history over the Germans in the group phase.

Mention of the “Disgrace of Gijon” in 1982 is sure to get a lot of play in the run-up to the June 28 clash, but we suspect Algeria can get into the knockout phase this time, as it might just take a win over group lightweight Jordan to secure enough points.

Algeria is one of the livelier African entries, playing on the front foot for manager Vladimir Petkovic, who has good experience at the international level, having led Switzerland into the quarterfinals of the 2020 Euros after knocking out Kylian Mbappe and France on penalties.

Defensive inconsistency, an issue in qualifiers, will likely prove the Achilles Heel and off-ramp to exit the tourney, likely at the top of the knockout phase. One to watch, however, might by Wolfsburg winger Mohamed Amoura, whose pace reminds of Vinicius and can help stretch enemy defenses while looking for his own goals to score, having netted more of those than any (Mo Salah included) in CAF qualifiers.

Expect Algeria’s breakneck pace to help it score enough goals to get beyond the 4.5-goal total that has been posted, with a likely extra game in the knockout phase aiding that quest.

Jordan

The expansion of the field to 48 teams has made room for World Cup debutantes like Jordan, whose mere qualification was enough to trigger celebrations in Amman and elsewhere last June. Expectations, however, are tempered, and things such as merely scoring a goal might be cause to party. Maybe easier said than done.

Jordan plays a pragmatic style as championed by manager Jamal Sellami. Though, to be fair, being organized and hard-to-beat aren’t always bad qualities for a longshot in the World Cup, and the chance at flustering one or more of the group foes into a nil-nil is a possibility.

Since qualification, however, there have been injury issues, with much of the scoring burden now falling upon Rennes striker Mousa Al-Tamari, one of only two European-based squad members, after 12 goal involvements (six goals, six assists) for one of Ligue Un’s surprise packages this season. If Jordan is to score, it will likely be Al-Taamari doing the honors, but don’t expect him to be among the Golden Boot leaders. One goal could be enough to earn Al-Taamari or someone else team scoring honors.

While Jordan might not prove easy to play against, there is a dearth of quality attacking options, so the aim might simply be to fluster and grind out a few nil-nil results and hope that is enough to advance, however unlikely that scenario. Though if the ride ends at the group phase, as it seems, playing just three matches with so little firepower should keep the Jordanians in the running for the lowest-scoring team at Copa Mundial (and a resultant bomber price to note).

World Cup Group J Recommended Wagers

Argentina: Best Bet – To reach quarterfinals at +100, to finish 1-2 in group in front of Austria at +110. Bigger Price Watch – Land on 7 points in group phase +200, Argentina top scorer (must win) Julian Alvarez at +300, eliminated at quarterfinals +400.

Austria: Austria – Exit Round of 32 at -163, finish 2nd in group with Argentina on top at +110. Bigger Price Watch – Austria leading scorer (must win) Marko Arnautovic +200, land on 6 points in group phase at +300.

Algeria: Best Bet – Algeria over 4.5 goals +110, eliminated at Round of 32 (-110). Bigger Price Watch – Algeria top scorer (must win) Mohamed Amoura at +500.

Jordan: Best Bet – Land on 0 points in group play +150. Bigger Price Watch – Jordan leading scorer (must win) Musa Al-Taamari +350, Jordan lowest scoring team at World Cup +1000.

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