Liverpool vs Arsenal Expert Prediction and Picks | Premier League Betting April 9
Liverpool vs Arsenal Betting Preview
Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his prediction and picks for this Liverpool vs Arsenal Premier League match before start time at 11:30am ET Sunday, coming from Anfield in Liverpool, England. Liverpool is winless in their last three Premier League matches with Arsenal sitting in first place by eight points.
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Liverpool vs Arsenal Betting Odds
| Sunday, April 9 | Premier League Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Arsenal: | +140 |
| Liverpool: | +180 |
| Draw: | +265 |
| Total: | 3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 11:30am ET / 8:30am PT |
Liverpool vs Arsenal Betting Analysis
When schedule-makers put out this fixture for Matchday 30 I’m sure they were thinking that one of these teams might be sitting at the top of the table and the other might be on the outside of a European qualification, but I bet you they were dead wrong on which team was which.
Of course, you could say the same thing when it comes to European matches assuming that if only one team was still alive in a European competition, it would Liverpool, not Arsenal.
It’s remarkable how much of a drop in quality we have seen from Liverpool this season. Most of it has come on the defensive side of the ball as offensively, they still rank in the Top 4 or 5 in most statistical categories.
Ranking 16th in xGA is not a recipe for long-term success in the EPL. Last season Liverpool allowed a paltry 0.86 xGA, but this season, only Fulham and relegation candidates Everton, Nottingham and Bournemouth have allowed more.
Arsenal Blowing Through Competition
On the flip side, many expected Arsenal to perform better this season with how they ended last year, and the offseason splashes they made.
They have clearly improved as they are generating the 2nd most xG per match at 2.07 compared to last year’s 1.67.
Defensively though has been nearly as good as they dropped from 1.27 xGA to just 1.01 this season. On the road, they have actually performed even better allowing just 0.96 xGA which leads the league as the only side to allow less than 1.0 per 90 minutes.
Last Chance Effort for Liverpool
For the Reds, there is an outside chance they can make a push for a Top-4 spot as they sit ten points back of United with ten matches to go.
Watching their performance against Chelsea, even though they did somehow manage a point in that 0-0 draw, is just a stark reminder of how far behind in quality they are, if their result vs Real Madrid in the Champions League didn’t already do that.
I simply do not want to put my money on a team that is just 10-18 ATS this season. Arsenal, meanwhile, a very profitable 19-9-1 ATS this year and to the Over at 18-11.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Expert Prediction
Arsenal won the reverse fixture 3-2 back in October but they generated more 2.0 xG more than Liverpool did in that match, 2.82 – 0.77.
I see no reason to think this match plays out any differently as far as a result goes, although I don’t expect to see as lopsided of xG numbers at Anfield.
Still, I believe we see the Gunners continue to do what they have done all season away from home with 11 wins from 14 matches.
Prediction: Arsenal +140
Soccer Betting Tips
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.
Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.
Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.
Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.
Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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