PGA Golf Picks This Weekend – Arnold Palmer Invitational March 5-8

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

PGA golf picks this weekend from WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang are available for the Arnold Palmer Invitational teeing off from Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, FL! Andy discusses his predictions, picks, who can trip you up, the course and more surrounding Arnold Palmer Invitational starting March 5!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Notes
When:	March 5-8
Where:	Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, FL
Defending Champ:	Russell Henley
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+340 at DraftKings)
TV:	NBC, ESPN+, Golf Channel, Peacock

Arnold Palmer Invitational Course: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, one of the toughest and most complete tests on the PGA Tour schedule. The par-72 layout stretches over 7,400 yards and demands a full skill set — power off the tee, precision with long irons, and confident putting on firm Bermudagrass greens.

Bay Hill is known for its difficult par-3s and a  closing stretch that can quickly shift the leaderboard. Weather this week looks dry with no rain in the forecast, which should allow the course to firm up as the tournament progresses.

However, afternoon winds are expected to pick up each day, adding another layer of difficulty, especially on exposed holes where approach shots must be flighted properly. Morning wave players could see a slight advantage if winds stay lighter early. 

When Bay Hill plays firm and windy, it becomes a grind. Missed fairways make controlling approach shots difficult, and the greens can get quick by the weekend.

Expect scoring to stay under control, with patience and ball-striking consistency likely separating contenders from the  rest of the field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Players That Can Trip You Up

Matthew Fitzpatrick hasn’t looked like himself this season. He has just one Top 10 finish all  year and has gotten progressively worse in each of his last three starts.

The putter has been a real problem, losing -0.37 strokes on the season, which is a major red flag on a course that demands  birdie conversions.

His course history isn’t inspiring either—14th or worse the last three years, including a missed cut and a 22nd the last two seasons. At his price, the risk outweighs the  reward. 

Si Woo Kim feels overpriced for what he’s shown lately. He’s coming off finishes of 45th and 34th and has just one Top 20 ever at this tournament, yet he’s being priced like a Top 12 option. 

The biggest concern is the putter—he’s lost -0.77 strokes putting over his last two events. That’s a dangerous profile in a field where scoring will be required. Too many red flags for this number. 

Robert MacIntyre has been surviving with a hot putter, but the iron play is slipping at the  wrong time. He’s lost -0.49 strokes on approach over the last two weeks, and that’s not sustainable long term.

While he finished 11th here last year, he hasn’t cracked the Top 20 in any of his three starts this season. If the putter cools even slightly, the floor drops quickly. He’s a classic trap candidate this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational: DraftKings Darlings

Sahith Theegala ($6,800) continues to reward believers in what’s shaping up as a true bounce back season. He’s made all six cuts this year and is gaining +1.45 total strokes gained, driven by strong iron play and one of the better putting profiles in the field.

While he missed the cut here  last year during a down stretch, he finished 6th and 14th in his two prior appearances. The form, confidence, and price all line up for another strong week. 

Keith Mitchell ($6,900) has been rock solid to start the season, making the cut in all six tournaments and never missing the cut at this venue.

His tee-to-green number sits at +1.45, one of the stronger marks in the field—exactly what you need on a demanding course like this.

If the putter is even average, his ball-striking gives him clear top-20 potential. At this price, he’s a  high-floor DFS piece. 

Jacob Bridgeman ($7,700) has quietly been one of the most consistent performers on tour this year with five straight Top 20 finishes.

He ranks 3rd in the field in total strokes gained, which shows this isn’t a fluke run. He also finished 15th here last year, proving the course suits his game.

With elite current form and strong course comfort, Bridgeman brings both safety and real upside to DFS builds.

Rest of Lineup: Shane Lowry $8100, Russell Henley $9400, Tommy Fleetwood $10,300

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