Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds May 25-28

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Charles Schwab Challenge teeing off from Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Charles Schwab Challenge this week!

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Charles Schwab Challenge	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	May 25-28
Where:	Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, Texas)
Defending Champ:	Sam Burns
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	GOLF & CBS

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The Course & Field – Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, Texas)

From Nick Borrman:

This event is the longest non-major running on the same track as this will be the 78th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

The course measures just over 7,200 yards and plays to a par-70 for the second consecutive week with only two par 5s in play.

However, it tends not to play as long as it sounds with much of the distance on some long par 3s and a par 5 stretching well over 600 yards.

Players should have short irons in their hands in most par 4s. For that reason, accuracy off the tee tends to trump distance here with narrow, tree-lined fairways.

The course is Bermuda grass everywhere except the putting greens, which for a second consecutive week are bentgrass. Immediately after conclusion of the tournament, renovations are set to begin in advance of next year’s event.

The field is surprisingly solid immediately following a major and with another designated event on tap next week at the Memorial.

Eleven of the Top-30 players in the world will tee it up this week highlighted by Scottie Scheffler who once again rose to #1 in the world on the heels of his co-runner-up finish at the PGA Championship.

Fellow Texan and past winner Jordan Spieth joins Scottie as one of the favorites this week, as well as Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Max Homa and defending champion Sam Burns.

Last year’s final round proved very difficult with 30+ mph winds but this year’s edition the weather looks much tamer and more favorable for scoring.

Burns 9-under was good enough to lift the title but the previous winners finished 15-under both in 2021 and 2020 and 13-under in 2019. Expect those scores to return once again this year.

Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions

Anytime an LIV golfer wins a major, it will break the trend of winners being ranked inside the Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the previous 12 months as their data is just not there. However, expect that trend to return this week with a very strong Top-10 in Fort Worth.

I can’t fault anyone for betting Scheffler this week, but with his price where it is, it’s basically all your eggs in one basket and I just don’t roll like that very often.

Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winner

Justin Rose +3300 (FanDuel)

Further down the list this week is a past-winner here in Justin Rose who won this event in 2018 and has seemed to return to his prime coming off another Top-10 last week at the PGA Championship, his 4th of the season including a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Rose has gained strokes in approach in nine straight starts and that is one of the metrics I’m zeroing in on this week.

Rose ranks in the Top-10 in Total Strokes Gained in this field over the previous 12, 6 and 3-months. He has also been strong in this event in particular ranking 8th in Total Strokes Gained with a minimum of at least eight rounds played.

Rose is a great putter in general, ranking 20th in Strokes Gained Putting, but he is elite on bentgrass greens which we will see at Colonial for the 2nd straight week.

Rose ranks #1 in Strokes Gained Putting on bentgrass greens going all the way back to 2014. This season he also ranks 9th in Proximity, 3rd in Sand Save Percentage and 9th in overall Scoring Average.

Leaderboard Finish

Tony Finau Top-10 +170 (B365) | Top-20 -125 (B365)

Usually, I go for a higher return on the leaderboard bet, but there aren’t many higher odds players with decent course history here, so I’ll keep it safer on Finau.

Tony combines strong form with good history. He was a rare miss last week at the PGA Championship, finishing near the bottom of those that made the cut, but that snapped a run of 14 straight starts with no finish worse than T31 including ten Top-20s and two wins.

Last week was the first time Finau lost strokes on Approach this season and the first time in over a year with the last time coming at the Wells Fargo Championship in May of 2022, a run of 24 straight starts gaining on Approach.

It’s a big reason for his success in this event as he has made the cut in all seven starts at Colonial with four Top-20s including a T4 last year. Additionally, Tony ranks 14th in Putting Average per GIR this season as well as 7th in Scoring Average.

Top-10 Player to Fade

Max Homa

Homa is trending in the wrong direction and at around 20-1 to win this week, is not a price I want to pay on a guy that is struggling. Since finishing T9 at the Match Play, Homa has just one Top-40 finish in five starts which came at the Wells Fargo Championship where he finished T8.

Otherwise, he has two missed cuts along with finishes of T43 at the Masters and T55 last week at the PGA Championship.

His Total Strokes Gained numbers have been steadily dropping. He ranks 4th in that category over the last 12 months at +1.62 per round which drops to +1.46 over the last six months all the way down to +0.89 over the last three months which ranks 27th in this field and nowhere near the Top-6 or 7 betting favorites we are seeing.

See you next week for the Memorial Tournament!

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