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Memorial Tournament Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds June 1-4

Golf balls for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Memorial Tournament teeing off from Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Memorial Tournament this week!

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Memorial Tournament PGA Tour Betting Notes
When: June 1-4
Where: Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio
Defending Champ: Billy Horschel
Current Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+600 at DraftKings)

Memorial Tournament Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Memorial Tournament 10 strokes gained

The Course & Field – Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio

From Nick Borrman:

Another designated event is upon on this week as the 120-man field is staked for the 48th edition of The Memorial Tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus.

It was always a strong field event every year, but designated status affords basically no one to skip this week. This will be the third edition of the event since the renovations so we can use the last couple of years’ results as true representations of how this course plays and who has liked the changes.

The golf course is long, playing over 7,500 yards but unlike the last two weeks, we will see four par 5s this week as the course plays to a par-72. The course can play very much like a major with thick rough and tiny, lightning fast putting greens.

Greenside bunkers are brutal to save par from and rough around the green makes scrambling difficult. Fairways are wider than average but accuracy in finding them is important to avoid the rough. Taking advantage of the par 5s will be crucial to win this week.

With small greens, that can often bring into play the poor putter because ball striking becomes that much more important.

AKA, Scottie Scheffler and his ridiculous run of 15 straight Top-12 finishes thanks to a minimum +2.11 Strokes Gained per round in each tournament with an average putter at best. Also, with wide fairways and overall length of the course, distance is more important than accuracy this week as there is extra room to miss.

Around the green is vital as well as Muirfield ranks as the 2nd hardest course to gain strokes around the green behind only Augusta National. However, it’s rare to find a guy that can bomb it and have touch around the greens, so Approach will likely negate the touch around the greens if it can be avoided all together.

Weather will be a non-factor with a high around 90 degrees all four days, no chance of rain and overall light winds. It’s literally the same forecast all four days.

Memorial Tournament Predictions

Cantlay is a great example of a past champion here. Elite ball-striking with a putter that lets him down too often. It’s another reason with Collin Morikawa is a past champion here, although it was at the Workday Charity Open during the 2020 super-season.

Memorial Tournament Outright Winner

Xander Schauffele +1400 (FanDuel)

Xander is a guy that winning consistently on the PGA TOUR seems to elude him, but putting himself near the top of the leaderboard is the norm.

Schauffele has finished Top-20 in 22 of his last 26 starts including 14 Top-10 finishes among three wins. His approach statistics are elite while his Off the Tee game has let him down at times. However, with a little extra room to spray it this week, I’m counting on that helping his game.

Xander has never really contended here but has quietly finished inside the Top-20 in each of the last five years.

Xander ranks 4th in Total SG over the last 12 months, which rises to 3rd over the last six months and 2nd over the last three months with Scottie Scheffler continuing to lead the way. However, at more than double the price, Xander is the more attractive option this week.

Leaderboard Finish

Corey Conners Top-10 +425 (B365) | Top-20 +175 (B365)

Conners has always been known as an elite ball-striker and he proved that with his win at the Valero Texas Open at the beginning of April.

He has eight Top-20 finishes over his last 15 starts and is the epitome of what should play at Muirfield Village. Consistent ball striking.

This will be Conners six start at Muirfield Village with his best finish coming last year at T13.

He is coming off a T8 and T12 burst in his last two starts and took off last week giving him an extra bit of rest heading into Muirfield. Conners ranks 18th on TOUR in Total SG this season including ranking 11th in Greens in Regulation.

Top-10 Player to Fade

Max Homa

Rory had a strong finish at the PGA Championship but that is a major he always performs well in. Otherwise, he is in a bit of a funk when comparing to the other Big-3 and a guy I’ve been refusing to pay the price on.

Rory has only three Top-20 finishes over this last eight starts and despite his TOUR record, has never had a great run at Muirfield with only four Top-10 finishes in 11 starts and none over his last four.

If I’m going to pay the price on him this week, I’d rather look at Cantlay or Schauffele as better options in overall better form.

See you next week for the RBC Canadian Open!

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