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Canadian Open Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 8-11

RBC Heritage predictions and picks

Canadian Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Canadian Open teeing off from Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, ON. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Canadian Open this week!

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Canadian Open PGA Tour Betting Notes
When: June 1-4
Where: Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, ON
Defending Champ: Rory McIlroy
Current Favorite: Rory McIlroy (Top 5 +140 at DraftKings)

Canadian Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Canadian Open top 10 strokes gained

Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, ON

From Nick Borrman:

Oakdale is hosting Canada’s National Open for the first time in history and is the 37th different venue to do so. The course is a classical design with tree-lined fairways and very thick 4-5” rough by the time the tournament tees off on Thursday.

Most of the landing areas are sloped or pinched-in making holding the fairway that much more difficult, putting and additional emphasis on driving.

The course plays to a par 72 measuring a little over 7,200 yards which is on the shorter side for TOUR standards. However, it is not a typical setup with only three par 3s and three par 5s, giving it a total of 12 par 4s, two more than the usual par 72 setup which obviously adds importance to par 4 scoring.

Because of the shorter length, players will have plenty of opportunities to attack greens with short irons or wedges in their hands, especially on the back nine which is supposed to play the easier than the front.

Speaking of nines, the property is made up of three 9s and the tournament will use a composite of holes from all three nines for this week’s 18-hole routing.

Anytime the TOUR features a new course, good putters tend to have their advantage taken away as players are unfamiliar with the surfaces which levels the playing field putting more of an emphasis on ball-striking.

Next week, of course, is the US Open at Los Angeles CC so this is not a designated event and many of the game’s top players will be absent.

Still, there are some big names in the field led by 2-time defending champion, Rory McIlroy. In an odd situation, Rory’s two wins came over the last four years as there was no tournament held in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID pandemic.

Including Rory, ten of the Top-30 players in the world are in the field with other notables including several Englishmen, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood.

There are 21 Canadians in the field including each of the Top-9 in the world rankings. However, no Canadian has won this event since 1954.

Key metrics this week:

  • SG Off the Tee and Good Drive Percentage
  • Par-4 Scoring
  • Proximity 100-150 yards
  • SG Approach

Canadian Open Predictions

With history not on the Canadian’s side and Rory’s much-too-short of a number, this may be a good week to circle in on the one of the Englishmen in the field or one of the two Americans still chasing their first victory in Cameron Young or Sahith Theegala.

Canadian Open Outright Winner

Justin Rose +1800 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

Admittedly, we already missed the best of the number on Rose this week, but he sets up as a great play at Oakdale. Rose is accurate off the tee, ranking 36th in Driving Accuracy and his overall lack of distance will not be a detriment this week.

He ranks 20th in SG Approach, including 1st in this field, and has gained strokes in that department in ten straight starts. During that run, he has six Top-20 finishes including his win at Pebble Beach.

While Rose falls a little outside the elite level in proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards, ranking 48th, his overall rank is 6th which is the best in this field.

With two more par 4s in play this week, Rose is also solid in that department, ranking 35th on the season. He should give us a god chance to cash an Outright ticket on Sunday.

Leaderboard Finish

Joseph Bramlett Top-10 +700 (B365) | Top-20 +300 (B365)

Bramlett has been playing very well as of late with three Top-20 finishes in his last five starts His strength is his length which isn’t necessarily needed this week, but if he can control it, certainly won’t hurt.

However, he has been consistently solid with his approach all season gaining strokes in 14 of this last 17 starts. He also ranks 30th in Greens in Regulation Percentage.

Bramlett’s biggest weakness with his game is his putting as he ranks 149th in SG Putting on the season, but with a new course comes uncertainty on the putting greens which will likely help his cause this week. I like his chances to be somewhere on the 1st or 2nd page of the leaderboard at the end of the week.

Top-10 Player to Fade

Rory McIlroy

Back-to-back Top-10s for Rory means he might just be coming around at the right time with only two Top-10s in his previous seven starts prior to that.

He is also the two-time defending champion of this event and hasn’t been distracted with the fact the tournament is played the week before the US Open.

However, at less than +500 at most books, he is basically an all-or-nothing play. I’m not betting Rory to miss the cut or anything as I don’t think that is the case here, but so long as he doesn’t win, it was a good bet avoiding him as even on the Top-5 market at even money, there is no value on the favorite this week.

See you next week for the US Open!

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