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BMW Championship Predictions, Free Picks and Odds Aug 17-20

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BMW Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the BMW Championship teeing off from Olympia Fields Country Club North Course in Chicago, IL. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the BMW Championship starting August 17!

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BMW ChampionshipPGA Tour Betting Notes
When:August 17-20
Where:Olympia Fields Country Club North Course in Chicago, IL
Defending Champ:Patrick Cantlay
Current Favorite:Rory McIlroy (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel & CBS

BMW Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

BMW Championship betting data

The Course & Field – Olympia Fields Country Club North Course (suburb of Chicago, Illinois)

From Nick Borrman:

The second Playoff event tees off this week as the field has narrowed to 50 players. While so much is talked about the week about playing yourself into the next event, the fact of the matter is that there usually isn’t too much shuffling around.

Only two players were able to play themselves into the Top-50 this week, Cam Davis and Hideki Matsuyama and last season, only four players made the move into the Top-30 after this second playoff event. So, for 80% of the players currently outside of the Top-30, this is likely their last event of the season.

We obviously have another very strong field, and with only 50 players teeing it up, once again there will be no cut after Friday.

Lucas Glover is going for the rare threepeat this week after winning each of the last two TOUR events while in a similar situation, Patrick Cantlay is also going for a threepeat specifically at this event as he has won the last two BMW Championships, despite being contested at different venues.

The North Course at Olympia Fields hosted this event back in 2020. Jon Rahm won in a playoff over Dustin Johnson in US Open conditions with their finishing score settling in at just 4-under par.

The course played very firm and fast, but this year is likely to play differently. After a very dry spring, there has been quite a lot of rain over the last six weeks which will allow players to land the ball more precisely.

However, the penalty for missing could be worse this time around as the rough is lush and much thicker than in 2020. Good golf shots will allow the players to attack, bad ones will be penalized.

The North Course plays to a par-70 at just over 7,300 yards. Distance off the tee is important this week especially as we won’t see much roll out.

The top six players in 2020 all ranked inside the top 11 in driving distance that week as proof of that notion. The course plays as a classic parkland-style track as fairways are tree-lined and narrow.

There are over 90 bunkers on the course so trouble is lurking everywhere, and par will always be a good score. I think it will be tough for anyone to reach double digits under par this week.

BMW Championship Outright Winner

Viktor Hovland +1600 (Everywhere)

If Hovland plays the 18th last week at even par, he wins the Fedex St. Jude Championship by one shot without needing a playoff.

He made two double bogeys and one bogey by putting his tee sheet in the water on three of four days. Aside from, Hovland was lights out.

He ranked 2nd on Approach gaining 6.2 strokes over the four days while also gaining strokes both with his short game and putting, the former being his normal weakness.

I mentioned those tee sheets on 18, well that obviously affected his SG Off the Tee numbers in a negative way and last week was the first time this entire season that he lost strokes Off the Tee. Otherwise, he’s been phenomenal with the driver, hitting for both distance and accuracy.

Over his last eight starts, Hovland’s worst finish was a T29 which included a joint runner-up at the PGA Championship and a win at the Memorial Tournament.

Olympia Fields was the site of the 2020 BMW Championship which Hovland did play, finishing in a T40, though he was still an unproven winner at that time. But at least having the reps here, does give him that slight advantage over half of this field.

For what it’s worth, FanDuel is offering an Outright option ‘without Rahm, Scheffler, Rory and Cantlay’. In that market, Hovland is still at +1200 which isn’t a significant drop but considering you would expect at least two of those guys in contention this week like we saw last week with Rory and Cantlay, it might not be a bad option to consider.

BMW Championship Leaderboard Finish

Lucas Glover Top-10 +240 | Top-20 -120 (DraftKings)

While it isn’t stepping outside the box to take a piece of the guy that just won back-to-back tournaments, there is no indication that Glover is going to slip backwards here, at least not significantly and considering the field size of just 50, that is what would have to happen for him to essentially not beat half this field to cash a Top-20.

Winning three straight events is a big ask, so I won’t play that this week, but considering he is the hottest player in the field since the beginning of July, I don’t want to sit on the sidelines either.

Glover’s last six starts include five Top-10 finishes and one missed cut at the 3M Open which he subsequently followed up with back-to-back wins.

He doesn’t miss fairways, his irons have been very solid, and his putter has been unbelievable. He flapped a little on the back-nine Sunday at the St Jude. Championship, but made some incredible putts down the stretch to get into the playoff and eventually win. I’ll ride that confidence another week in the Leaderboard markets.

BMW Championship Favorite to Fade

Scottie Scheffler +700

Hard to say it’s a good idea to fade one of the favorites, but he continues to lose strokes putting and until he can at least break even with the putter, his ball-striking can’t overcome it.

He needs to finish in the Top-5 to return value at his price, and arguable higher, but coming off a T31 last week preceding a T23 at The Open Championship and Scheffler seems to be trending the wrong direction at the wrong time.

See you next week for the TOUR Championship!

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