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Fedex St. Jude Championship Predictions, Free Picks and Odds Aug 10-13

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WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Fedex St. Jude Championship teeing off from TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Fedex St. Jude Championship starting August 10!

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Fedex St. Jude ChampionshipPGA Tour Betting Notes
When:August 10-13
Where:TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN
Defending Champ:Will Zalatoris
Current Favorite:Scottie Scheffler (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel & CBS

Fedex St. Jude Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Screen Shot 2023 08 08 at 2.35.44 AM

The Course & Field – TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tennessee)

From Nick Borrman:

We’re talking Playoffs! We’ve made it to the final three weeks of the TOUR season, and it all comes down to this. This year is a little different than in year’s past.

As you already know, only 70 have qualified for the first event, down from 125 last year, and because of that, there will be no cut this week.

All 70 players are guaranteed four days as they vie to move into the Top 50 to move onto next week’s BMW Championship.

TPC Southwind is a stock par-70 track that plays a little over 7,200 yards. It features narrow, tree-lined fairways and plenty of hazards as 11 of 18 holes have water in play.

Eight of the par 4s this week play over 450 yards so there will be plenty of mid to long irons in the guys’ hands. Greens are small, averaging only 4,300 sq ft which makes iron play that much more important, while at the same time it takes the putter out of play and could even the field in that regard.

That might only help someone like Scheffler or McIlroy who rely on their tee-to-green game but often fall short with the putter.

In fact, four of the last six winners at this venue ranked 1st in SG Tee to Green for the tournament. Will Zalatoris was a prime example of an excellent ball-striker, not putter, that was able to win here last year.

One last note I’ll add when doing your research this week, make sure you research TPC Southwind when looking for course history, not just the tournament name of Fedex St. Jude.

This is only the 2nd season the course is hosting this playoff event, though it was host to the Fedex St Jude Classic for nearly 30 years until 2018 before hosting a WGC event for the next three years.

As always, let’s wrap with the weather. Thunderstorms are in the forecast on Wednesday which will make for soft conditions on Thursday.

Currently there are AM T’storms on Thursday’s forecast, but if that does not transpire, or even if it delays things a bit, I do believe that first wave on Thursday morning is likely to have the most scorable conditions.

I would never say it’s wise to but all your eggs in one basket, but if you are stuck choosing between two guys, perhaps that might break the tie for you.

2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Predictions and Odds | PGA Tour Free Plays | WT Extra 8/1

Fedex St. Jude Championship Outright Winner

Collin Morikawa +2500 (FanDuel)

I haven’t bet on Morikawa in quite a while, but I feel like this is a good venue to back him. Morikawa’s weakness is his putter, but with small greens averaging only 4,500 sq ft this week, that will minimize his weakness in relation to the field while accentuating his Tee to Green game.

Morikawa missed the cut at The Open Championship, but it was a rare poor week with his irons as he lost strokes on approach for only the 2nd time dating back a year to last year’s Open.

At the same time, he has only lost strokes off the tee three times over that period and combined, has not lost strokes ball-striking (which is both of those stats added together) since last year’s Scottish Open, a run of 26 straight tournaments.

Morikawa is too good to stay “in a funk” for an extended period and it appears he might be coming out of it after finishing T14 at the US Open and then losing in a playoff to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has also finished no worse than T26 in three starts here including a T5 last year.

Fedex St. Jude Championship Leaderboard Finish

Cameron Young Top-10 +350 | Top-20 +130 (Bet365 | DraftKings)

I feel like we are getting a good price on Young compared to last year when he was 30-1 to win while this week 40-1s are abound and as high as 45-1.

Young had been in a funk since the Masters as he hadn’t finished inside the Top-30 in seven straight events.

So, he entered the John Deere Classic, a surprising event for him to play in considering the weak field, but he needed to find some momentum and he was able to finish T6 and piggyback that into a T8 in his next start at The Open Championship. He did then follow that up with a MC at the 3M Open, but I like this venue as another good spot for him.

Don’t forget, Young was playing exceptionally last year and that ran into the first half of this season with 12 of 17 starts where he finished inside the Top-25 including seven Top-10s. His funk was always going to be short lived.

Young’s advantage is his length which will help him take advantage of the par 5s this week as well as the eight par 4s that are over 450 yards.

While his putter has been what is letting him down, I already mentioned why I don’t think that will be a big deal this week. Instead, I trust him with short irons in his hand trying to hit these small greens versus many other guys with mid-irons.

Fedex St. Jude Championship Favorite to Fade

Xander Schauffele +1800

Xander is the 5th betting favorite and he probably should be based on his body of work, but he hasn’t been returning Top-5 value as of late. Over his last six starts, Xander has finished T10 once but otherwise hasn’t finished inside the Top-15.

It’s not like he’s playing poorly as he has made every cut along the way, in fact he hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters in 2022! However, just not seeing the return on his price right now so I’ll pass on him.

See you next week for the BMW Championship!

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