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AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds May 11-14

Scottie Scheffler prepares for Charles Schwab Challenge

AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the AT&T Byron Nelson teeing off from TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the AT&T Byron Nelson this week!

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AT&T Byron Nelson PGA Tour Betting Notes
When: May 11-14
Where: TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX
Defending Champ: K.H. Lee
Current Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+360 at DraftKings)
TV: GOLF Network & CBS

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AT&T Byron Nelson Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

AT&T Byron Nelson top 10 strokes gained

AT&T Byron Nelson Course and Field – Quail Hollow Golf Course in Charlotte, NC

From Nick Borrman:

The Byron Nelson returns to Craig Ranch for the third consecutive year, however, there has still only been one winner at this venue as K.H. Lee won in both 2021 and 2022 and looks to become the first three-peat champion since Steve Sticker at the John Deere Classic from 2009 to 2011.

This tournament is sandwiched between a designated event and next week’s PGA Championship so as expected, this is a light field with only three of the Top-20 in the world teeing it up.

The field is highlighted by World #2 Scottie Scheffler who could return to #1 in with a win this week. His odds to win have dropped even lower as the 2nd favorite, Jordan Spieth, withdrew on Monday citing a wrist injury.

Scheffler is around 4-1 to win which is similar to Rahm two weeks ago in Mexico, who was unable to win, finishing runner-up to Tony Finau.

TPC Craig Ranch is designed by Tom Weiskopf along with D.A. Weibring and was a stock par 72 measuring just over 7,400 yards. ‘Was’ being the keyword as its now a par 71 with the 12th hole reduced in length by about 50 yards and converted from a par 5 to a par 4.

In its two years on TOUR, the course has ranked as one of the easiest with winning scores of 26 and 25-under, obviously both by K.H. Lee. The course hosted the Korn Ferry Tour Championship twice before its new role as host of the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Hard to zero in on a particular skillset this week as the course is hosting for just the third time, but one will need to ability to go low to win this tournament.

Distance trumps accuracy off the tee. Rowlett Creek crosses the property on 14 holes otherwise the track is straight forward. Hit greens and make putts.

The biggest story this week is likely to be the weather. With a Monday finish a real possibility with a threat of rain and thunderstorms all four days, it will be interesting to see how Scottie Scheffler, for example, approaches trying to win this tournament as that will only lessen his ability to prepare for next week’s second major.

AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions

Wyndham Clark proved last week you don’t have to be one of the Top-10 players in the field to win, especially this week where longshots will likely contend. Don’t be afraid to play a few more guys this week with a little less risk on each.

AT&T Byron Nelson Outright Winner

Seamus Power +4400 (FanDuel)

Seamus had a hell of a run from the fall to the beginning of this calendar year with eight straight Top-25 finishes highlighted by a win at the Bermuda Championship.

If you follow the TOUR with any regularity, you know that time of year is unique in the fact that most of the events have a weak field like this week, though Power’s run did include three designated events at the Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational.

He has since cooled with two MCs in five events, but they were all designated events plus The Masters. He did, however, return with another Top-20 finish last week at the Wells Fargo Championship.

With only two previous tournaments held here, there isn’t much course history to be had for any competitor this week, but Seamus did finish Top-20 both years with a T9 in 2021 and T17 last year.

Finally, the winner will have to make a lot of birdies this week and Power ranks 12th in Putting Average this season.

Leaderboard Finish

Matt Kuchar Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150 (Bet365)

Back to the well on Koooooch this week as we cashed him a couple weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. He missed another Top-20 last week by one shot finishing T23 which snapped a run of three straight Top-20s and five of his last nine starts including four Top-10s.

While the ability to make birdies gets much of the attention at events with a winning score expected to reach into the 20-under par range, it’s the ability to save par and keep momentum going that is even more important and nobody is better than Kuchar who ranks 1st in SG Around the Green, 1st in Sand Save Percentage, and 1st in overall Scrambling.

Again, we only have two previous tournaments to look at here, but like Power, Kuchar has Top-20s in both with a T17 in 2021 and a T12 last year. He’s got form, the right skillset and confidence at this track, all of which should propel him to another strong finish this week.

Top-10 Player to Fade

Scottie Scheffler

Last week it was Rory, this week it has to be Scottie. I want no parts of a guy sitting at 4-1 on the Outright market, plus I can’t imagine he will be fully focused on winning this tournament, but rather using it as a prep week for next week’s PGA Championship.

Considering Scottie has finished no worse than T12 in his last 12 starts, I certainly am not betting him to miss the cut or anything, but he’s just not bettable this week, even in matchups. At 4-1, it’s also not a situation where I will be kicking myself if he does win. I’ll save him for next week!

See you next week for the PGA Championship!

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