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Wells Fargo Championship Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds May 4-7

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Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Wells Fargo Championship teeing off from Quail Hollow Golf Course. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Wells Fargo Championship this week!

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Wells Fargo Championship PGA Tour Betting Notes
When: May 4-7
Where: Quail Hollow Golf Course in Charlotte, NC
Defending Champ: Max Homa
Current Favorite: Rory McIlroy (+700 at DraftKings)
TV: GOLF Network & CBS

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Wells Fargo Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Wells Fargo Championship odds board

Wells Fargo Championship Course and Field – Quail Hollow Golf Course in Charlotte, NC

From Nick Borrman:

It feels like forever ago since we have had a designated event, but I guess we have become spoiled this season. But fear not, the designated events return this week at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Of the Big 3, only Rory is in the field as both Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm have opted to take this week off. That leaves Rory as the odds-on favorite in a field that features 40 of the top 50 in the world.

Last year’s edition of this tournament was played at TPC Potomac as Quail Hollow was preparing to host the President’s Cup. It was also the host of the 2017 PGA Championship where Justin Thomas prevailed.

Max Homa may be the defending champion of this tournament, but Rory is the defending champion on this course. However, in a crazy twist, Max Homa also won here at Quail in 2019.

Circle back to Rory who has added two more victories here in 2015 and 2010. Jason Day is another past champion in 2018 who can combine course history and current form for the first time in a long time.

There is no sugar coating it. Quail Hollow is a tough track. The Tom Fazio designed track is a par-71 at over 7,500 yards. It features eight par 4s measuring over 450 yards.

The Green Mile is a brutal finishing stretch featuring a 500-yard par-4 16th, a 220-yard par-3 17th over water and another (almost) 500-yard par-4 finishing hole with a creek running up the entire left side.

The course features narrow fairways, thick rough and Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee will be important this week, which is not to say a shorter hitter can’t contend, but bombers certainly have the advantage.

Weather looks good for the tournament. Winds will be kicking on Tuesday and Wednesday which may cause some second-guessing during practice rounds, but it is basically non-existent Thursday thru Sunday. There is a chance of rain on Saturday but that will only soften the course and give further advantage to the longer hitters.

Wells Fargo Championship Predictions

The trend continues last week in Mexico as 16 of 26 TOUR Winners this season have ranked inside the Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the previous 12 months. Being a designated event with an elite field, expect that trend to continue once again this week.

Wells Fargo Championship Outright Winner

Viktor Hovland +2200 (PointsBet)

Without Jon Rahm, Hovland leads this field in the All-around ranking this season. He also ranks 7th in SG Off the Tee which will be crucial this week and 14th in SG Approach.

With narrow fairways around the track, hitting from the rough will be a factor for everyone in the field, and Hovland is more comfortable than anyone ranking 1st in Proximity to the Hole from the rough.

Viktor hasn’t missed a cut at a non-major event in the U.S. in 15 months. He’s finished outside the Top-25 just three times in 14 starts this season and won the limited-field Hero World Challenge in December.

He has been very close in a couple of recent big events including a T3 at THE PLAYERS, a T7 at the Masters, along with a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. So that is three Top-10s in the last four designated stroke play events.

Hovland finished T3 in his only start here last year and he is close to his first big time win. I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday.

Leaderboard Finish

Rickie Fowler Top-10 +375 | Top-20 +180 (Bet365)

Converging trends here for Rickie who is having a career resurgence year. He has made 11 straight cuts dating back to October including eight Top-20 finishes. He has also shown up big in the designated events finishing in the Top-20 in five of his six starts.

Then there is his history at Quail Hollow. Rickie missed the cut here last year, but that was when his game was at his career worst. He made the cut in all nine starts prior to that including winning the event in 2012. He has finished inside the Top-20 in six of his ten starts including four Top-10s.

Rickie ranks 17th in SG Tee to Green and 8th in SG Approach this season while ranking 12th in Putting Average. Strong ball-striking and the ability to roll the rock makes Rickie a real threat this week.

Top-10 Player to Fade

Rory McIlroy

Obviously, there is no denying his history at this track with three previous wins including the last edition in 2021. Still, with two missed cuts in his last three starts and only two Top-10s in six starts this year, it’s hard to see the value in his number.

This is certainly his chance to shine with both Scheffler and Rahm absent from the field this week, but I would rather play two or three other guys in the 20-1 range.

See you next week for the AT&T Byron Nelson!

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