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Wells Fargo Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds May 9-12

Max Homa preps for Wells Fargo Championship

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Wells Fargo Championship teeing off from Quail Hollow Golf & Country Club in Charlotte, NC. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Wells Fargo Championship starting May 9th!


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Wells Fargo ChampionshipWells Fargo Championship Nelson Betting Notes
When:May 9-12
Where:Quail Hollow Golf & Country Club in Charlotte, NC
Defending Champ:Wyndham Clark
Current Favorite:Rory McIlroy (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel, CBS

Wells Fargo Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

Wells Fargo Championship Odds Board

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

Signature Event number six of the season does not feature the winner of the previous two as Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week and it is doubtful you will find any of his fellow competitors upset about that.

The field is set at 70, well 69, this week after the withdrawal of Ludvig Aberg due to a sore knee, though he expects to be back next week for the second major of the year, the PGA Championship.

There is no cut this week, so all players are guaranteed four rounds. Additionally, there is a second Tour event this week, the Myrtle Beach Classic, for all those that did not qualify for the Wells Fargo.

Quail Hollow is a tough track as the course usually ranks among the hardest the players face all season. I mean, it did host a major, the 2017 PGA Championship in which Justin Thomas prevailed.

The course can stretch to nearly 7,600 yards with the players facing more than half of their approach shots from over 175 yards.

If you miss the fairway, players will be greeted by rough measuring 2.5 inches to start the week. Green complexes are tricky and can be very speedy and the finishing three-hole stretch, known as the Green Mile, can present a great finish to the tournament.

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To win, players need to take advantage of the par 5s and hang on for par on the remaining holes which will put you right in line with typical winning scores here, minus last year where Clark reached 19-under par, though third place did come in at a more typical 12-under.

Additionally, live betting can be a predictive tool this week as only two of the last ten winners (except for the PGA) have been ranked further back than 5th place after the second round.

That seems very plausible again this year as the course is expected to become more difficult as the week progresses thanks to Mother Nature.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, the higher chance being Thursday but will dry out and firm up over the weekend.

Players must get off to a fast start on Thursday if soft conditions exist because of rain, but it is impossible to predict a wave advantage based on the current forecast. Instead, just look at players that tend to get off to fast starts to hopefully find themselves inside the Top-5 heading into the weekend.

Wells Fargo Championship Outright Winners: Max Homa +2200 (FanDuel or BetMGM)

From Nick Borrman:

Hard to ignore Homa’s track record here with Quail Hollow the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2019 while also finishing T8 here last year. He added another win in 2022 at this event, but it was a different course (TPC Potomac) as the Wells Fargo swapped venues a few times.

After seemingly a quiet start to 2024, Homa made a big splash at Augusta, ultimately finishing T3 at The Masters while he also has two additional Top-20s in Signature Events this season.

But Homa is a guy who tends to play well at the same track every year and is also a guy that can get, and stay, in a groove as evidenced by a run of seven-straight Top-12 finishes last summer which was capped with a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour.

Homa has distance off the tee and is a five-tool caliber player gaining strokes in all five measured categories. He is a particularly good putter where he ranked 6th in SG Putting last season. Hopefully we can ride another hot putter to a win this week.

Wells Fargo Championship Top-20 Finish: Sahith Theegala +275 (Bet365)

Theegala has been performing well in the biggest events this season and the books have certainly taken notice listing him as a Top-10 betting favorite this week.

He is coming off a solo 2nd in his last start at the RBC Heritage which followed a T9 at THE PLAYERS, a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and a solo 5th at the WM Phoenix Open proving he can play well on the biggest stages. He also added another runner-up at The Sentry to open the season.

Theegala can send it off the tee and can get blistering hot with his putter as he ranks 4th in this field in SG Putting over the last 12 months.

His biggest weakness is his short game, but he doesn’t miss a ton of greens, ranking 20th in Tour this season in Greens in Regulation. He also ranks better than most on approaches over 200 yards, coming in at 31st this season.

All that leads to ranking 18th in Bogey Avoidance, crucial around a major championship caliber venue, and helps him come in at 7th in Adjusted Scoring.

Theegala only has one start at Quail Hollow where he did make the cut in last year’s 156-man field, but he is a much different player now than he was a year ago.

See you next week for the PGA Championship!


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