Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds and Betting Preview March 3-6
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill in Orlando. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Arnold Palmer Invitational | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | March 3-6, 2022 |
| Where: | Bay Hill in Orlando, Florida |
| Defending Champ: | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+750 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Board
Okay, let’s be honest, Sepp Straka was not on most bettors’ radar heading into the Honda last week as he adds to the growing streak of now four-straight first-time PGA Tour winners. Last week was a tough event with the winning score coming in at -10 and a total of only 15 players posting a score under par. Wind was a factor and will once again be a factor this week, at least Friday thru Sunday.
Top-10 Strokes Gained Tee to Green over the last six months (betting odds via DraftKings)
Luke List +1.82 (+7000)
Will Zalatoris +1.80 (+2500)
Sungjae Im +1.61 (+2200)
Jon Rahm +1.58 (+750)
Rory McIlroy +1.51 (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler +1.34 (+1600)
Hideki Matsuyama +1.30 (+2500)
Russell Henley +1.22 (+4000)
Martin Laird +1.20 (+15000)
Sergio Garcia +1.19 (+5000)
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Course and Field
From Nick Borrman: Bay Hill has hosted this event every year since 1979 and it remains one of the most difficult non-major venues the Tour visits each year. Last year, DeChambeau prevailed with a winning score of -11. In 2020 it was Tyrrell Hatton at a mere -4 and in 2019 Francesco Molinari lifted the trophy at -12.
The par 72 had a scoring average of 73.02 last year and 74.11 in 2020, which is the highest scoring average of a non-major par 72 course over the last six years. Last year Bay Hill ranked as the fifth most-difficult course to find greens in regulation, and in 2020 it was the hardest course on the PGA Tour in terms of hitting greens.
Like last week, there are bunkers and water all over the place with over 100 bunkers on the course and water coming into play on half of the holes. The rough is definitely a factor this week and avoiding it off the tee is key to scoring here.
This week’s field isn’t as strong as you would expect at a venue like this with only four of the top-10 in the world and just ten of the top-25 teeing it up. This is a tournament you can take a shot on some longer odds with only 15 players posting odds lower than 40-1.
Nick’s Picks
For my outrights this week, I’m gravitating to non-Americans, especially English or Aussies who are much more accustomed to playing in tough elements, specifically the wind.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2700 (FanDuel) | Top-10 +310 (FanDuel)
I’ll start with Fitzy who has played very well at Bay Hill, posting finishes of 2nd, T9 and T10 the last three years. He ranks No. 1 in this field in Strokes Gained Putting averaging a full +1.00 per round over the last six months while gaining strokes in all five measured categories.
Over his last four starts, his worst finish was a T12 at the Hero, while finishing second at the DP World Tour Championship, T6 at Pebble and T10 as the WM Phoenix Open. He ranks sixth in scoring average this season and is generally a very straight driver, which as I mentioned earlier, will be important this week to avoid the rough (or worse) and set himself up to be able to hit greens.
Marc Leishman +2900 (FanDuel) | Top-10 +320 (FanDuel)
Anytime you talk about wind being a factor, Leishman is a guy that comes to mind. You might not always bet him, but you at least think about him as he is notoriously one of the best wind players in the game, as most Aussie’s are. This time around, you can add in how well he has been playing coming in.
Leishman flew out of the gates in the fall season going T4 and T3 in his first two starts of the season at the Fortinet and Shriners along with another Top-20 at Houston, and since the calendar has turned to 2022, he has kept his foot on the pedal. He finished T10 at the Sentry TOC, T36 at the Sony Open (his worst finish), T16 at Farmers and then T15 at The Genesis, two other very tough tracks. He ranks No. 15 on Tour in scoring average, No. 7 in birdie average and No. 13 in Total Strokes Gained.
Leishman missed the cut here last year but finished in the top-25 in five straight years prior to that including a win in 2017 and a runner-up in 2020. He Also finished T3 back in 2011 as well so has plenty of good vibes around the place.
Arnold Palmer Invitational H2H Matchup
Jason Kokrak over Sam Burns
Burns seems like auto-fade material at the moment on the heels of three-straight missed cuts at The Farmers, WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis. Surprising to say the least considering how hot he was at the end of last year. He also doesn’t have very good history here with his best finish a T36 in four tries.
Kokrak seems to be having the opposite story, starting off the season with a MC and a T54 in the fall before then coming out of no where and winning in Houston. His last two starts were solid as well with a T17 at the Sony Open and a T26 at The Genesis.
But what most people like about Kokrak this week, myself included, is his history at Bay Hill which shows six top-20s in nine starts including four top-10s. You can get a small plus-number price on the hotter player with course history on his side.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Notes
From Andy Lang: Players to avoid: Jon Rahm – His putting has not been good the last two weeks. He was -2.3, and -2.6 strokes gained putting at the Waste Management and The Genesis and he’s never played here. His price is too high on matchups and daily fantasy for someone that might be in a putting slump.
Sepp Straka – Congrats on getting his first win, he played great, but he’s had three finishes this year outside the top-40. He’s missed the cut both times he played here, this is a classic let down for a guy who got his first win on Tour.
Russell Henley – He’s played well this year finishing 2nd, 14th, 33rd, and 33rd. He has good stats, especially green in regulation and tee to green. However, I won’t be playing him this week because of his history here. From 2013 to 2017 he missed the cut three times and finished 49th and 45th. He then didn’t play here for four years, almost like he doesn’t play well here and didn’t want to play here anymore. He’ll try and tee it up again here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he struggles this week.
DraftKings Darlings: Sam Ryder ($6700) – His stats aren’t great for the year, but he’s played solid the last three weeks finishing 9th, 26th, 23rd. Last week his stats were way better than his season averages, maybe he’s made an adjustment on something and we can RYDE the streak.
Rickie Fowler ($6800) – He’s not going to contend for the win, but he’s made two cuts in a row and has made the cut here five years in a row with three top-20 finishes in that span. At this price if he makes the cut and gets us weekend points, this price is incredible.
Sahith Theegala ($7000) – He still hasn’t missed a cut this year, and had the crazy third-place finish at the Waste Management and he followed that up with a missed cut. He took a week off, he’ll be rested, he should get you weekend points.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill in Orlando. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
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