UFC Noche: Lopes vs Silva Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 13, 2025

UFC Noche Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Noche picks and predictions for September 13, 2025 with the main event headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 6:00pm ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX!

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Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva: UFC Noche Main Event

Saturday, September 13	UFC Noche Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Diego Lopes +210 vs Jean Silva -260
Rounds:	2.5 (Over -165 / Under +130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 6:00pm ET / 3:00pm PT
Arena:	Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Noche Predictions: Undercard

Daniil Donchenko -240 vs Rodrigo Sezinando +200

I love Daniil Donchenko in this matchup. He showed really strong performances on The Ultimate Fighter, proving himself as a violent fighter who’s always searching for the finish.

His striking is sharp, aggressive, and should give him a clear advantage in this contest. Rodrigo Sezinando is a solid competitor, but I don’t see the same upside in his striking.

He may have moments, but over the course of the fight Donchenko’s pressure, pace, and finishing ability should overwhelm him. If Donchenko comes in motivated, he has all the tools to secure the win.

Alice Pereira -184 vs Montserrat Rendon +142

Alice Pereira, the sister of UFC champion Alex Pereira, makes her debut here. She has solid striking when she connects, but she’s slow on the feet and hasn’t faced anyone even close to UFC caliber yet.

Montserrat Rendon isn’t a world-beater either, but she has faced stronger competition, and her ground game is her best path to victory.

While Pereira has shown some ability on the ground as well, it’s unclear whether Rendon has the strength to consistently hold her down.

This matchup feels very unpredictable, and at these odds, it’s a dog or pass situation. There’s a chance Pereira is in the UFC more because of her name than her skills at this point, which makes Rendon a live underdog if she can impose her control.

Alessandro Costa -480 vs Alden Coria +330

Alessandro Costa comes in as a heavy favorite, and for good reason. He’s proven to be a strong, dangerous fighter with power in his hands, strength in the clinch, and improving leg kicks that set up finishes, like his KO over Borjas in his last fight.

Costa’s only UFC losses came to Steve Erceg, a legit title contender, and to Amir Albazi, which was on short notice for his debut.

Alden Coria makes his UFC debut after fighting in Fury FC, where he showed he can hit hard, but he hasn’t faced anyone remotely close to Costa’s level.

Without the experience against elite competition, it’s tough to see Coria landing the kind of big shot he would need to win. Costa’s strength, versatility, and proven track record make him the clear pick here.

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Zach Reese -260 vs Sedriques Dumas +196

There’s just no world where you can confidently back Sedriques Dumas here. He consistently makes bad decisions both in and out of the Octagon, having recently been arrested, and his fighting skills don’t inspire much confidence.

His striking is weak, and while he prefers to take the fight to the ground, his wrestling isn’t strong enough to reliably get it there.

Zach Reese, on the other hand, comes in with legitimate weapons. He has big power in his hands, dangerous submissions, and although durability has been a concern in the past, he proved something in his last fight by going the full three rounds for the first time in his career.

His cardio wasn’t perfect, but this matchup doesn’t look like it will require a long gas tank. Reese should be able to impose his game early, and the most likely outcome is him finding a knockout finish before this one goes deep.

Luis Gurule -225 vs Jesus Aguilar +172

Jesus Aguilar continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers, despite proving repeatedly that he has the toughness and relentlessness to compete with bigger, stronger opponents.

While he may be undersized, Aguilar has a well-rounded ground game, fast hands on the feet, and the kind of

pressure that makes opponents uncomfortable. His striking isn’t the most powerful, but he mixes it up well and tends to find success in scrappy exchanges.

Luis Gurule, meanwhile, is a strong fighter who likes to work inside the clinch but is also capable of striking from range. The problem is that he can be low volume and has shown cardio issues.

In his last fight, he slowed badly in the second round, his striking defense fell apart, and he ended up getting knocked out.

That plays directly into Aguilar’s strengths. If Gurule can’t put him away early, Aguilar’s pressure and pace should wear him down, leaving the later rounds open for Aguilar to outwork him. In what could be a close fight, Aguilar looks like the live underdog to edge out a decision as Gurule’s gas tank fades.

Tatiana Suarez -460 vs Amanda Lemos +350

The odds on this fight feel far too wide. Tatiana Suarez is a phenomenal wrestler, but injuries and age have clearly taken some of her explosiveness away.

While she can still dominate when she gets on top, she isn’t the same relentless grappler she was earlier in her career.

Amanda Lemos, meanwhile, is no pushover on the ground—she’s not as polished as Suarez, but she’s competent enough to hang and work her way out of bad spots.

Where Lemos really shines is on the feet. She’s the far superior striker, with the ability to land heavy shots and change the momentum of a fight quickly. If Suarez gets her wrestling going early, she’ll likely control the fight and win comfortably.

But at a price of -460, it’s far too risky to pay for a result that depends entirely on Suarez being able to consistently get takedowns and stay safe. At these odds, it’s dog or pass. Lemos is the value side, or you stay away entirely.

Claudio Puelles -120 vs Joaquim Silva +100

Claudio Puelles has one path to victory, and that’s getting the fight to the ground. He wants no part of striking exchanges, instead relying heavily on his submission game and ground control.

While it’s been effective at times—earning him a 13-3 record—his lack of striking has caught up with him, leading to two straight losses. On the feet, he’s essentially a sitting duck.

Joaquim Silva isn’t a world-beater, but he brings a more well-rounded skill set. He’s proven he can handle wrestlers before with a win over Clay Guida, and he’s effective in the clinch.

If Silva can keep this fight standing by stuffing takedowns, his striking should give him a clear edge over Puelles.

This matchup has the potential to be slow and uneventful, with Puelles constantly chasing takedowns. But Silva’s ability to defend and create offense on the feet makes him the side to back here. The pick is Silva.

Dusko Todorovic -330 vs Jose Medina +240

Dusko Todorovic enters as the heavy favorite, but recent performances raise real concerns. He’s on a losing streak, his striking defense continues to be an issue, and his last fight against Zach Reese showed no aggression or power.

Todorovic typically looks to clinch and grind opponents, but even in those spots he hasn’t looked dominant lately.

Jose Medina, meanwhile, is fighting to save his UFC career. While he was knocked out by Gautier in his last fight, that was his first KO loss and came against an absolute tank.

Outside of that, Medina has shown solid durability, and Todorovic isn’t exactly a huge knockout threat. If Medina can survive clinch situations and keep the fight standing, he has the chance to land the cleaner shots and possibly rock Todorovic multiple times.

With Todorovic struggling for momentum and Medina fighting for his spot on the roster, this has upset potential written on it.

Todorovic may have the safer path to a decision, but Medina is live here—and worth a sprinkle at these odds.

Santiago Luna -125 vs Quang Le -102

Santiago Luna comes into this fight as the slight favorite, but at just 21 years old with only six professional bouts, there are legitimate questions about whether he’s being brought into the UFC too soon.

While he has finishes and flashy highlights, most of those wins have come against very low-level opposition, leaving us without a clear sense of how he’ll perform against UFC-caliber fighters.

Quang Le, on the other hand, may not be elite, but he has valuable experience and a submission win over a UFC fighter on his record.

His wrestling is a clear advantage here, and that could dictate how this matchup plays out. If he’s able to get Luna down and control the fight on the mat, Luna’s inexperience against higher-level grapplers could be exposed.

Given the contrast between Luna’s raw but untested skillset and Le’s proven wrestling base and UFC-level experience, the edge leans toward Le in this matchup. I’ll take the UFC-tested fighter over the young prospect who may not be ready for this stage.

Alexander Hernandez -130 vs Diego Ferreira +115

Alexander Hernandez steps into this fight with momentum after scoring a KO win last month, but consistency has always been his issue.

Hernandez has the speed, athleticism, and knockout power to threaten anyone in the division, yet he’s also prone to cardio dumps, defensive lapses, and costly mistakes. He’s the definition of high-upside but high-risk — making him unpredictable from one fight to the next.

Diego Ferreira, at 40 years old, may be past his peak but still brings experience and strong striking fundamentals.

His composure and fight IQ could be the exact tools needed to capitalize on Hernandez’s recklessness and force mistakes that swing rounds in his favor. Ferreira’s durability and veteran savvy make him a live underdog in this spot.

While Hernandez might be the more explosive fighter on paper, Ferreira’s steadiness and experience make him appealing as the value side.

Still, with Hernandez’s volatility, this is not a fight to trust your bankroll on. If you’re betting, Ferreira is the lean — but for me, it’s a pass in terms of actual wagers.

Kelvin Gastelum -245 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +200

Kelvin Gastelum enters as the clear favorite, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a durable striker with solid defense and proven experience against far higher levels of competition than Dustin Stoltzfus has faced.

Gastelum’s patience, combined with his ability to stay composed under fire, makes him a tough matchup for a fighter like Stoltzfus who tends to leave openings.

Stoltzfus has had moments of success on the feet, but his striking defense is questionable, and he too often makes mistakes that land him in bad positions. Against someone as composed and experienced as Gastelum, those lapses are likely to be costly.

As the fight progresses, Gastelum’s pressure and durability should start to wear Stoltzfus down. Expect Gastelum to gradually take over and eventually find the finish after capitalizing on Stoltzfus’s mistakes. This is a fight that should favor Gastelum from start to finish.

Jared Gordon -230 vs Rafa Garcia +190

Jared Gordon steps into this fight as the rightful favorite, largely due to his consistency and more polished overall game.

His striking is cleaner, and he’s excellent in the clinch, where he can control opponents with pressure and wear them down.

Gordon’s experience against stronger competition also gives him an edge in composure and fight IQ, which should be a factor here.

Rafa Garcia, on the other hand, has built a record that looks better on paper than in practice. Many of his wins have come against aging fighters or opponents no longer competing at the UFC level, and every time he’s stepped up in competition, he’s fallen short.

While Garcia has toughness and can hang in fights, he often struggles to impose himself against well-rounded opponents.

Rob Font -115 vs David Martinez -105

Rob Font comes in with the experience edge and remains a sharp, technical boxer with accuracy and composure, but he’s getting older and has limitations.

His biggest weakness is his lack of wrestling, which makes him dependent on keeping fights standing and winning exchanges with his hands. While his skills are still good, Martinez has the type of tools that can cause him serious problems.

David Martinez is the younger, hungrier fighter, with clear power and upside. His leg kicks in particular could be the difference-maker.

If Martinez establishes them early, Font’s mobility and footwork could be compromised quickly, leaving him vulnerable to Martinez’s heavier shots.

Font’s experience and sharp boxing could keep him competitive, but without more weapons in his arsenal, he’ll struggle to stay ahead if Martinez keeps applying pressure.

This one should be close, but the youth, power, and leg-kick game of Martinez tilt the edge his way. The pick is Martinez to win a competitive fight.

Expect Gordon to dictate the pace, keep Garcia pressed against the fence, and use his striking and clinch work to rack up rounds. A finish isn’t likely here, but Gordon’s control and consistency should lead him to a clear decision victory.

UFC Noche Main Event: Diego Lopes +210 vs Jean Silva -260

Jean Silva enters this matchup as the favorite, riding strong momentum with his blend of big knockout power and improving all-around skills.

He’s shown he can do more than just strike— his wrestling and submission game looked sharp in the fight against Bryce Mitchell, which makes him more dangerous than just a one-dimensional puncher. If Silva can keep the fight standing, his raw power and striking variety should overwhelm Lopes.

Diego Lopes, however, is no easy out. He’s a slick grappler with proven submission skills and has reportedly been putting a lot of focus into improving his wrestling, likely to help set up those ground exchanges.

His striking is solid, but Silva’s power advantage looms large. Lopes’ best path to victory is to turn this into a grappling-heavy fight where he can test Silva’s defensive wrestling and hunt for subs.

This fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Lopes has real upset potential if he can force it to the ground, but Silva’s power and well-roundedness make him the lean.

The problem is the price —at -260, Silva doesn’t offer enough value. Lean Silva to win, but this is a pass from a betting perspective.

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