UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Curtis Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 6

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for April 6th with Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis headlining the main event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 6:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, April 6	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brendan Allen -198 vs Chris Curtis +164
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Melissa Mullins -278 vs Nora Cornolle +225

Great value on the underdog here, and Cornolle with absolutely be the pick here. Both women won their UFC debuts, and even though the scorecards were curious for Cornolle, she showed great heart as she reversed position several times against Joselyn Edwards, had exceptional cardio, and even though I thought she lost that fight, it was a momentum builder for her career.

Mullins has solid takedowns and a good ground game, but she has a big weakness in her striking defense. She’s been bloodied up badly in her last two fights, and Cornolle can do the same if she maintains distance control and patience.

Mullins has shown really good ground and pound, but Cornolle has shown the ability to get out of tricky situations on the ground, and I think we see Mullins get takedowns, but we also will see Mullins get out of trouble and land the better strikes on the feet. It’s a great price on a fight that should be pretty close, it’s a dog or pass fight.

Dylan Budka -155 vs Cesar Almeida +130

Just stay away from betting this fight. Almeida pulled a nice upset on Contender Series when he out-grappled the grappler which was a stunner because he comes from a kickboxing background.

He looked good, but I don’t think we have enough info to made an educated guess as to what he’s going to look like in this fight.

Budka is coming off one of the more bizarre Contender Series fights we’ve seen where his opponent gassed out, and wrapped up Budka for most of the fight and refused to engage in a fight.

Dana White ripped the opponent, and then the guy tested positive for cocaine. We didn’t get a chance to see much from Budka so I don’t see how we can make a bet in this fight. Move on to other fights.

Jean Matsumoto -185 vs Dan Argueta +154

I get a UFC veteran with a proven track record against a guy coming off of Contender Series? Sign me up. Fun Fact: Argueta’s last two fights have been no contests as he was easily beating Ronnie Lawrence and the ref stopped the fight a couple of seconds too early, but make no mistake…Argueta was going to win.

Then he got beat by Miles Johns, but it turns out Johns was on steroids so the fight got ruled a no-contest. Argueta has been getting better, and his advantage in this fight will be the wrestling and experience.

Matsumoto put on a good performance on Contender Series, but we’ve seen over and over again that these Contender Series guys don’t look good in their UFC debut, and Matsumoto hasn’t faced anything like the pressure and wrestling that Argueta will put on him. Even in his Contender Series fight, Matsumoto’s opponent had a good moment in top position at the end of round two.

Matsumoto has decent cardio, but Argueta’s is going to be better and if this fight is close, it should be advantage Argueta in the final round. Love Argueta in this one.

Norma Dumont -185 vs Germaine de Randamie +164

I would absolutely love to play Randamie at this price, but the fact is she hasn’t fought since October 2020 due to an injury layoff and having a baby, and she’s now 40 years old.

Fighting-wise, Randamie is longer, rangier, and has a huge reach and striking advantage. She’s also fought the best of the best and her only UFC losses are to Amanda Nunes. Dumont has won three in a row, but they are to pretty bad opponents.

Dumont won her last fight against Chelsea Chandler in unimpressive fashion, and for most of the fight she was on top of Chandler in top position not doing a lot of damage.

Normally, I would love Randamie, but the layoff is a big red flag. I’ll just take the over as Dumont is a decision machine (7 straight in the UFC), and I don’t see a 40-year-old Randamie finishing someone in her first fight back.

Alex Morono -340 vs Court McGee +270

It’s a steep price, but I love Morono in this one. Morono has lost two of three, but one was a loss to Joquin Buckley who looks like a real contender in this division, and the other was a loss to Ponzinibbio where Morono took the fight on a few days short notice and was winning til he gassed and got knocked out in the third.

It’s a great buy low spot for Morono who is facing Court McGee who has to be about done in the UFC.

He’s lost 5 out of 7 fights, and after going his entire career without being finished he’s gotten knocked out in round one in consecutive fights by Jeremiah Wells and Matt Brown, which are terrible looks. Don’t overthink this one, use Morono as a parlay piece.

Valter Walker -395 vs Lukasz Brzeski +310

Brzeski won on Contender Series, but got popped for PED’s after that and he’s lost his three UFC fights, although a lot of people think he won against Martin Buday. In his last two fights, he’s shown bad cardio and wrestling against Karl Williams, and then he got KO’d by Cortes-Acosta, which is Cortes-Acosta’s only finish in the UFC.

Valter Walker is making his UFC debut with a perfect 11-0 record, but he’s not been fighting anyone even remotely close to being UFC caliber.

After watching his fights, I’ve come to the conclusion that Walker is a fraud. He’s bullied some really weak opponents, but his technique is awful, and his cardio is questionable at best.

His strength is takedowns, and Brzeski has shown bad takedown defense, but I think there’s a chance that he looks really bad and Brzeski hands him his first loss in a very sloppy fight. This fight features two big guys with bad cardio, and lackluster skills so it’s a dog or pass fight.

Ignacio Bahamondes -325 vs Christos Giagos +260

Bahamondes is coming off a bit of a strange loss to Ludovit Klein in that Klein looked the best he has ever looked, and it clearly took Bahamones off guard. Klein pressured forward, landed good strikes, and took away the length advantage that Bahamondes had.

He even landed takedowns and had top control for good periods of time, and showed no cardio issues en route to the win.

So, he showed the blueprint to beating Bahamondes, but can Giagos do those same things? I think he can, but for only a round or so and then his cardio falls off and he doesn’t have much offense after that.

Giagos won the first round in his last fight against Zellhuber, but in the second round he clearly got tired and didn’t have the power or ability to keep up the offense, and he ended up going for a weak takedown that Zellhuber blocked and put him in a choke.

The loss for Bahamondes might have been a good thing for him as it probably humbled him a bit and showed some things he needs to work on.

I don’t see Giagos being to apply the offense needed to beat Bahamondes for three rounds so Bahamondes is the pick. Don’t be surprised if Giagos looks good at the beginning of the fight, but be patient and watch him gas quick in the second.

Morgan Charriere -170 vs Jose Mariscal +142

I like both these guys, and I’ve money on both so this is a tough one, but Charriere is going to be the pick. Mariscal is known as a brawler, and one of the toughest guys around, and he earned the win against Trevor Peek in his UFC debut in a great performance.

In his next fight against Jack Jenkins, I thought he was showing signs of being more crisp and technical as opposed to just trying to brawl, but Jenkins won the first round before injuring his arm in the second.

It was a close fight, but Mariscal was struggling just a bit with how sharp Jenkins was with his striking, and while I think we’re going to see Mariscal keep improving, I think Charriere is better than Jenkins so this is going to be an uphill battle for Mariscal.

Charriere can be low volume in his fights, but every strike is measured and purposeful, and even though it looks like his fights are a bit boring, he’s KO’d his last three opponents.

I loved his last fight as it was his UFC debut and he looked a bit faster and threw more strikes which resulted in a first-round KO win with some brutal body kicks, and I’m betting that now Charriere is in the UFC with UFC camps and training, we’re going to see some improvement from him.

If we do, I think he can win several fights in a row in the UFC, and get into the top 15 pretty easily. His striking and ground game are going to be too much for Mariscal I think, but I think the fight is close so I won’t be betting too big on Charriere, but he is the pick for me.

Alexander Hernandez -198 vs Damon Jackson +164

Both of these guys are on losing streaks as Damon Jackson has dropped two in a row, and Hernandez is 1-3, but the odds are telling us that Hernandez should cruise here, and that’s a dangerous bet in my opinion.

Hernandez eats a lot of strikes, and he tends to push forward, but he pushes forward into punches like in his last fight where Algeo just let Hernandez walk to him and pieced him up with jabs and kicks.

His offense is pretty vanilla, and I don’t see a whole lot of upside on a guy who has 3 wins since 2019, and two of them are against Mike Breeden and Chris Gruetzemacher, two bad fighters.

Jackson won four fights in a row but dropped two in a row to Ige, who I’m a fan of, but his loss to Quarantillo is concerning based on how awful Billy Q looked in his last fight. In watching the last two fights from Jackson, he just looks a bit slower than Hernandez.

I do think he can win some clinch battles against the fence, and maybe that’s enough to win a round or two, but I can’t to the window on either of these guys. There’s no world where I’m laying -200 on Hernandez so it’s dog or pass, but I would recommend passing on this one.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brendan Allen -198 v Chris Curtis +164

Give Allen credit for winning 6 in a row, but we can poke some pretty big holes in his opponents. His last win was against Paul Craig who is 1-3 in his last 4 and has looked pretty bad, before that he beat Bruno Silva who just lost to Chris Weidman and is now on a 1-5 skid, and before that he beat Andre Muniz who has looked lackluster in his last 3 fights.

Again, credit to Allen, but he hasn’t been beating the best of the best, and Chris Curtis’s fighting style is nothing like those guys so it’s tough to compare.

Allen is going to want to get this fight to the ground as he’s got a massive advantage in the ground and submission game, but Curtis has fantastic takedown defense so this isn’t an easy task for Allen.

Curtis is going to want to make this a striking fight, and if can get Allen to engage in back-and-forth striking, Curtis should have the advantage.

These two fought years ago, and Curtis was able to avoid the danger on the ground for most of the fight, and he got the second-round finish. I have to believe Allen isn’t going to make the same mistakes this time around so I look for him to keep his distance and work hard for the takedowns.

This fight is closer than the odds suggest so the value is on Curtis, and I think he’s worth a small play. The striking defense of Allen hasn’t been tested in a while, and I haven’t been blown away by his performances recently. Not a big play, but I’m not laying -200 on Allen in this one.

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