UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds January 13

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for January 13th with Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, January 13	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Magomed Ankalaev -500 vs Johnny Walker +375
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -135 / Under +115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Joshua Van -198 v Felipe Bunes +164

Bunes is making his UFC debut, and I’m not all that impressed with him. He has unique striking, but it’s not always crisp, and he just doesn’t look that strong or powerful.

He’s a bit lanky and he finished his last fight by first round KO, but he’s only 3-4 in his last 7 fights, and I think Van is just a bit better at this point.

My only pause here is that Bunes hasn’t fought in a year, and I’ve seen some of these guys coming from other promotions have good performances when they have a big break from their last fight to their UFC debut.

I lean for this fight to not go the distance, but both of Van’s UFC fights have gone the distance so there may just not be any value in betting this fight. It’s a pass for me.

Tom Nolan -258 v Nikolas Motta +210

If you haven’t seen Tom Nolan fight, you’re in for a treat. He’s powerful, explosive, wild and yet his cardio is good. He pushes forward and overwhelms his opponent, and I think he’ll do that here to Motta.

Motta is coming off a brutal KO loss to Manuel Torres, and that’s two losses in three UFC fights with his win being against Cameron VanCamp who is not a UFC fighter anymore.

You can wait til props come out and take Nolan ITD, but I’ll play it safe and take this fight under 2.5 rounds. It might be a bit juicy, but it’s a great parlay piece as Tom Nolan fights don’t go very long.

Jean Silva -750 v Westin Wilson +525

There’s not much you can do with this fight as -750 is insane, but at the same time I’m not betting on Westin Wilson.

I’ll wait til props come out and see if under 2.5 rounds is a decent price, but if it’s higher than -400 I’ll pass. Silva went the distance on Contender Series, but he really beat up his opponent, and I don’t know if Westin Wilson can survive the strikes.

Wilson will be taller, but that’s the only thing the 34 year old will have going for him. He leaves his face wide open and Silva will take advantage. Silva by TKO, but I’m not sure there will be a decent enough price to make it worth a bet.

Farid Basharat -238 v Taylor Lapilous +195

Farid Basharat has looked great in his two UFC fights, and his performance against Kleydson Rodrigues was impressive as he dominated and got the first round choke.

Taylor Lapilus gets a second chance in the UFC as he beat Caolan Loughran in September after being cut seven years ago, and although he won, I wasn’t really impressed.

He showed good takedown defense and good striking, but Basharat is a big step up in competition, and Basharat’s technique is so clean and effective that he’s really difficult to get in a groove against.

I think Basharat lands strikes to start the fight to set up the takedown where he’ll win on the ground. Basharat is the play here, and a good parlay piece.

Marcus McGhee -278 v Gaston Bolanos +225

Bolanos won his UFC debut in his last fight as he came over from Bellator, and what got him the the win was having better cardio than his opponent.

Bolanos won the first round, but dropped the second round as his opponent was able to take him down twice and control the round, but Bolanos had more left in the tank for round three and got the victory despite being taken down once again.

Marcus McGhee has two finishes in his first two UFC fights, but this is a step up in competition, and I like the underdog here.

Bolanos’s weakness is clearly his takedown defense, but I think Bolanos is going to be faster on the feet and faster in the striking, and I don’t think McGhee will take him down and hold him there. This is a great spot to play the underdog, I’ll be on Bolanos.

Matthew Semelsburger -130 v Preston Parsons +110

Parsons pushes forward and wants his opponent against the fence, and I think he can do that against Semelsberger, but if he hasn’t improved his striking defense, Semelsberger will piece him up on the feet, and that’s what this fight comes down to.

Parsons lost a razor close decision against Trevin Giles in his last fight and he fought great, but his lack of striking defense was the deciding factor as he absorbed way too much damage.

I think Giles is better than Semelsberger so maybe this is a step down, but I do think Parsons will probably be the fresher fighter in round three, and I think that’s what makes me like the underdog here.

I think Semelsberger will have success on the feet for parts of the fight, and Parsons will have the advantage on clinch and takedowns, but in round three I think Semelsberger slows down too much and Parsons takes the round and the fight. Should be a fun match, but I think Parsons is the play here.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -550 v Andrei Arlovski +310

This is pretty straight forward here as Arlovski is taking fights to get paydays as his contract and career runs out. He doesn’t have cardio or finishing power left and he’s lost his last two fights by finish to subpar opponents in Mayes and Lima.

Before that, he won two fights by split decision, and Costa is just younger, more athletic and has better cardio at this point.

Costa should have no problems landing strikes on the feet, and if this gets past the first round we’ll see Arlovski fade quick.

It’s a steep price at -550, maybe taking him to win by finish would be worth it as Costa finished Brzeski in his last fight, but I just don’t see a path for Arlovski who is 44 years old.

Brunno Ferreira -122 v Phil Hawes +102

Both guys have power, and both guys have chin issues, but Phil Hawes’s chin is pretty much gone at this point. He still has skills, and can absolutely win this fight, but he’ll have to not get chin-checked at all as Ferreira hits like a tank.

This fight will take place on the feet until one of them gets knocked out, and Ferreira has the pure power advantage, but his skillset is raw and he got knocked out bad in his last fight to Ruziboev, and he was on his way to getting knocked out against Rodrigues until he pulled off one of the more improbable counter shots that knocked out Rodrigues.

So I don’t trust him in this fight, and I certainly don’t trust Hawes, but the one thing I do trust is that this fight won’t go the distance.

It probably won’t go past 1.5 rounds, but this is my favorite parlay piece on this card. Take the fight to not go the distance, pair it with something else and you’ll find profits coming your way.

Ricky Simon -166 v Mario Bautista +140

I’ve been a fan of betting on Ricky Simon fights, and I’ve been a fan of betting on Mario Bautista in his last few fights, and I’ve had a good read on both these fighters so I feel confident in my read on this fight.

Ricky Simon is going to win with his relentless pressure, and chain wrestling, and even though he’s on a big winning streak, Bautista isn’t going to be able to handle it for three rounds.

Bautista’s last three wins are against a full time realtor, a 43 year old, and a guy on one week notice, and he struggled against Blackshear who was on short notice.

Risky Simon hits harder than anyone Bautista has faced, and his pressure is insane. He’s coming off a loss to Yadong Song, but it was a great fight and Song is a legit title contender. This is too big of a step up in competition for Bautista, I love Simon in this matchup.

Jim Miller -115 v Gabriel Benitez -105 

This should be a really close fight, but I lean ever so slightly to Benitez despite him  losing 4 out of his last 6 fights. He has accurate striking and he’s good in the clinch, and his losses have been to really good fighters.

His wins have been against Charlie Ontiveros and Justin Jaynes recently, and Miller is better than those guys, but Miller has  beaten guys with some pretty glaring holes in their game.

Jesse Butler isn’t a UFC caliber fighter, Donald Cerrone was done years before he fought Miller, and Motta and Gonzalez gassed early and Miller took both of them out in the second round.

I don’t see the holes in Benitez’s striking defense that Miller is going to need to damage him and slow him up, but I do worry about cardio for both guys, and for that reason I won’t be betting on this fight. Let’s just hope Jim Miller doesn’t get injured in this fight so he can get his fight at UFC 300.

Manel Kape -245 v Matheus Nicolau +200

I don’t understand this line at all. I like Kape, but -245 is crazy. These two fought in 2021, and Nicolau got the split decision win so Kape has the motivation, but who has Kape beat?

Zhalgas Zhumagulov who loses to everyone, David Dvorak who has lost three straight, and Felipe Dos Santos who has 7 professional fights, and made his UFC debut on short notice.

I’m just not impressed with that, and although his striking and movement is really good, he can get hit. Nicolau is coming off a first round loss where Royval knocked him out with a beautiful knee early in the fight so we didn’t get a chance to see Nicolau do anything.

As much as I’m skeptical of Kape, Nicolau hasn’t beat the best guys either and coming off that quick KO, you have to wonder about his chin.

I’ll give the edge to Kape here as his volume and speed should let him pull away the longer the fight goes on, but no chance I’m laying -245 when Nicolau has KO power and Kape has looked lackluster at times.

UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev -500 vs Johnny Walker +375

The first fight ended in bizarre fashion, and there appears to be legit bad blood between these two so this fight could have fireworks.

Johnny Walker will want to land leg kicks as it’s a big liability for Ankalaev to thwart the takedown from Ankalaev, but I just don’t think Walker can keep Ankalaev off of him for the entire fight.

When Ankalaev got Walker down in the first fight, he held him down until the illegal knee ended the fight, but I thought it was evident that the punching and takedown offense of Ankalev was going to be there all fight, and I think that’s what happens in this one.

I can’t lay -500, but Ankalaev should win, and I also like overs in this fight as sneaky plays. Both guys have finishes on their resume, but if Ankalaev wants this fight to stay on the ground, I could see him grinding out a lot of minutes on the mat. Ankalaev

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