MMA Picks, MMA Experts Picks for July 3

Joey Chestnut UNDER 70.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-140)
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The conditions this year set up well for the under.

The forecast calls for extreme heat and humidity, with temperatures expected to approach 98 degrees. Those conditions make eating significantly more difficult. The buns absorb more moisture and expand, while the heat places additional stress on the body, making it tougher to maintain the blistering pace needed to reach 71 hot dogs.

The recent trend also favors the under. Chestnut hasn't cleared this number since 2021, making this a much more realistic target than his peak performances from several years ago.

There are also questions about his preparation and focus. Chestnut was recently arrested following an altercation after an individual approached him and asked to shake his hand. While it's impossible to know how much that incident affects him, it's another distraction leading into the biggest event of the year.

Chestnut is still the greatest competitive eater of all time, but expecting him to return to the numbers he posted in his prime may be asking too much. Between the oppressive weather, the recent history below this total, and the physical demands of the event, 70.5 is simply too high.

We'll back Joey Chestnut UNDER 70.5 Hot Dogs Eaten.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago